Global Ag News For Feb 2


Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 1 cent, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat up 1, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 10; Soymeal down $3.50, and Soyoil down 10 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 81 yuan in soybeans, up 10 in Corn, down 28 in Soymeal, down 104 in Soyoil, and down 100 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 93 ringgit at 3,397 (basis April) on drop in export reports, India’s increase in import tax.

In Argentina, conditions will trend drier in the middle part of this week. Net drying is expected in most of the nation through week 1 of the outlook. Some rise in crop stress will occur as a result mostly in the far south where there was not as much rain recently. Greater rain will likely occur in Argentina in week 2. The GFS model is struggling some with the potential mid-February rain events; though, this evening’s run was at least similar to the midday GFS model run in showing rain returning to the region.

In Brazil, conditions will continue to be favorable for crops in most of the nation. Significant rain into early next week will gradually shift more into the northeast benefiting areas such as Minas Gerais which have been notably dry recently. The rain will likely not quite get to northeastern Bahia or eastern Piaui though.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 9,000 SRW Wheat; bought 4,000 Corn; net sold 6,000 Soybeans; sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 408,000 Corn; net long 157,000 Soybeans; net long 71,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 115,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 965 contracts; HRW Wheat down 610; Corn down 970; Soybeans up 245 contracts; Soymeal up 1,700 lots, and; Soyoil down 760.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 49 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 169; Soyoil 1,286 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 732; HRW Wheat 91, and; HRS 1,023.

Tender Activity—Egypt seeks optional-origin wheat—Japan seeks 87,000t optional-origin wheat—S. Korea bought 60,000t optional-origin corn—




All Wheat sales running down 1% versus a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 2%. Corn up 84% (USDA up 43%). Soybeans up 79% (USDA up 33%).

Wire story reports China bought an astounding amount of U.S. corn last week and some market-watchers believe even more sales are possible, but these historic deals have somewhat overshadowed the fact that domestic export demand for the upcoming marketing year is already on a record pace. This increases pressure on new-crop supplies and this year’s U.S. harvest, where soybean acres will be battling against those of corn as farmers weigh the profitability potential. Robust demand already setting up for 2021-22 raises the risk of U.S. stockpiles remaining thin even with a large boost in soybean acres.

Brazilian farmers had harvested soybeans from only 1.9% of the area planted with the crop as of Jan. 28, according to agricultural consultancy AgRural. That’s the slowest start in ten years and far behind the 8.9% that had been harvested on the same date last year; AgRural forecasts a record 2020-2021 soybean crop of 131.7 million metric tons.

Russian wheat export prices fell for the second consecutive week last week due to more active supply from farmers concerned about upcoming higher wheat export taxes later in the marketing season. Moscow is attempting to reduce wheat exports to help curb rising domestic food prices. It imposed the tax of 25 euros ($30) per tonne for Feb. 15 to 28, rising to 50 euros/tonne from March 1. It also plans to switch to a more complicated formula-based regime in summer. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein loading from Black Sea ports for supply between Feb. 15 and Feb. 28 was at $293 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, down $3 from the previous week, the IKAR agriculture consultancy said. Sovecon, another Moscow consultancy, said wheat prices fell by $2 to $295, while barley rose by $9 to $247 a tonne due to strong export demand.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 14.99 million tonnes by Jan. 31, data published by the European Commission showed. That was down from 18.02 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.

European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 8.76 million tonnes by Jan. 31, data published by the European Commission showed; that compared with 8.17 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season.

European wheat futures fell to one-week lows on Monday, pressured by a fall in Chicago as U.S. corn dropped from 7-1/2 year highs and as traders assessed the potential impact of planned wheat export taxes in Russia. March milling wheatwas down 3.75 euros, or 1.6%, at 223.25 euros ($269.62) a tonne. It earlier fell to 222.50 euros before finding chart support at that level. As on Friday, Paris selling was focused in the front-month contract, which had built up a large premium over deferred delivery positions when it rallied to a 7-1/2 year peak of 240.25 euros in mid-January.

India has imposed an additional tax on crude palm oil imports as the world’s biggest importer of vegetable oils tries to build domestic agriculture infrastructure by taxing imports, the Finance Minister said; India cut the basic import tax on crude palm oil to 15% from 27.5%, but imposed a 17.5% “cess” – a separate tax – on the imports.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.