USDA Report Day. Grains Mostly Higher.


USDA report day. Grains are mostly higher. SH is up 5 cents and near 13.77. SMH is near 447.9. BOH is near 42.27. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.93. WH is up 9 cents and near 6.43. KWH is up 8 cents and near 6.02. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Copper is higher. 30 year bond is lower and making new lows.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 47 yuan in soybeans, down 13 in Corn, up 38 in Soymeal, down 164 in Soyoil, and down 154 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 95 ringgit at 3,702 (basis March) looking at weaker January exports.

Quiet before the storm. Soybean and corn futures will follow reaction to USDA numbers. Some doubt USDA will make big changes to South America crops which could limit their increase in US exports and drop in carryout. USDA could decide to wait to make changes in February. Demand buying is below the market if initial reaction is negative. Soymeal is higher on slow Argentina exports and higher China domestic prices. Soyoil is lower following lower palmoil prices. Wheat futures are higher on higher Paris wheat futures and no Russia export price offers. Russia may increase wheat export tax.

Average trade guess for US Dec 1 corn stocks is 11,951 mil bu versus 11,327 last year

Average trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 1,599 mil bu versus 1,702 last month

Average trade guess for World 2020/21 corn end stocks is 283.5 mmt versus 288.9 last month

Average trade guess for US Dec 1 soybean stocks is 2,920 mil bu versus 3,252 last year

Average trade guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 1,599 mil bu versus 1,702 last month

Average trade guess for World 2020/21 soybean end stocks is 82.6 mmt versus 85.6 last month

Average trade guess for US Dec 1 wheat stocks is 1,695 mil bu versus 1,841 last year

Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 859 mil bu versus 862 last month

Average trade guess for World 2020/21 wheat end stocks is 315.3 mmt versus 316.5 last month

Average trade guess for US 2021 winter wheat acres id 31.5 million versus 30.4 last year.

On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat, 4,000 soybeans; 7,000 soyoil and 12,000 corn; and buyers of 7,000 lots of Soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat ; long 320,000 Corn; net long 193,000 Soybeans; net long 96,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 106,000 soyoil.


Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.