Global Ag News


Dry weather and storm damage across the U.S. Midwest coupled with strong U.S. export demand sparked speculators’ biggest buying week in Chicago-traded grains and oilseeds in over a year, and soybeans led the charge when combining their moves in CBOT corn, wheat, soybeans and products, and Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat through Aug. 18, investors bought 201,537 futures and options contracts on the net, the most for a week since June 4, 2019.

Overnight trade has SRW up roughly 1 cent, HRW unchanged; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 3;  Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 25 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 26 cents; HRW up 21; HRS up 17; Corn was up 2 cents; Soybeans up 7; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil up 55 points. Crushing margins were down 1 cent at $0.98; Oil share unchanged at 34%.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 36 yuan in soybeans, down 22 in Corn, up 2 in Soymeal, down 10 in Soyoil, and down 14 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 18 at 2,663 (basis November) at midsession on weak export data, rival oils.

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest has both models indicating fairly healthy rains to fall in all of the region; both see totals of at least .75-1.25” to fall, with some 1.25”+ totals also possible, especially in the west; temps will run above average in most of the region for the week ahead as well as into the weekend and then will fall to below average as we work through the first half of next week.

The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has average to a bit less than average rainfall and below average temps for the Midwest while no cold air threats are seen.

The 6-10 day forecast for the Southern Plains sees rains to fall in the western sections of Kansas, Oklahoma, and most of Texas with light to moderate rains in the rest of Kansas and Oklahoma; temps will run above average in most areas in the next week to ten days.

The 6-10 day forecast for the Delta sees light to moderate rains to fall in most of the region.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 7,000 Corn; sold 1,000 Soybeans; net sold 3,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 1,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; short 110,000 Corn; net long 101,000 Soybeans; net long 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 56,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 15,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,100; Corn down 19,000 Soybeans down 4,400 contracts; Soymeal up 1,900 lots, and; Soyoil down 125.

There were changes in registrations (Soyoil up 51)—Registrations total 95 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 23; Soyoil 2,632 lots; Soymeal 511; Rice ZERO; HRW Wheat 47, and; HRS 1,387. 

Pro Farmer doused hopes for a record U.S. corn crop on Friday, after a severe wind storm and drought cut yield potential in the top production state of Iowa.

U.S. President Donald Trump raised the possibility of decoupling the U.S. economy from China, a major purchaser of U.S. goods; Trump initially said “we don’t have to” do business with China, and then later said about decoupling: “Well it’s something that if they don’t treat us right I would certainly, I would certainly do that.”

The United States generated more renewable fuel blending credits in July than in June, the Environmental Protection Agency said

Options exchange operator Miami International Holdings (MIH) will acquire the 139-year-old Minneapolis Grain Exchange, the last independent U.S. grain exchange, the organizations said in a statement.

China’s July pork imports more than doubled to 430,000 tons from a year earlier and hit a record monthly volume, customs data showed, despite tough new checks on cargoes that had slowed clearing at ports; Chinese importers have been bringing in huge volumes of meat this year to fill a large domestic supply shortage after an epidemic of African swine fever killed millions of pigs; however the data, released late on Sunday, came as a surprise after many overseas processing plants were forced to halt or slow production in the prior months due to coronavirus infections among workers.

China has found destructive fall armyworm in Liaoning province in its northeastern Cornbelt for the first time, state media reported; the destructive pest, which first arrived in China in January 2019, is moving north across the country at a much faster pace lately, due to the impact of Typhoon Hagupit; the report comes as China moves to guarantee food security as various disruptions like flooding, drought and a global coronavirus pandemic, threatened to disrupt its grains supplies.

Russia’s August exports of wheat, barley and maize (corn) are estimated at 5.5 million tons, up from 3.0 million tons estimated in July, the SovEcon agriculture consultancy said.

Ukraine has this year harvested 38.04 million tons of grain from 9.6 million hectares or 62% of the sown area as of Aug. 20, the economy ministry said

Benchmark wheat futures on Euronext rose on Friday to their highest in more than three weeks as harsh weather in Argentina threw the focus on to global supply risks and a retreat in the value of the euro made European wheat more competitive overseas; December milling wheat settled up 2.75 euros, or 1.4%, at 183.75 euros ($216.15) a ton, after earlier touching its highest since July 28 at 184.00 euros; front-month September settled 5 euros, or 2.8%, higher at 186.25 euros after earlier hitting a five-week peak of 186.75 euros.

India’s soybean production could jump by 32% in 2020 to 12.25 million tons from a year earlier due to higher area under the oilseed and as the yields are expected to rise on ample monsoon rainfall, a leading trade body said; increased production of India’s main summer-sown oilseed could help the world’s biggest vegetable oil importer trim costly purchases of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil from Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina and Ukraine.

Egypt’s wheat imports are expected to fall marginally to 13 million tons in marketing year 2020/2021 from 13.3 million a year earlier and 12.35 million in 2018/2019, according to a recent report by the US Department of Agriculture.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.