FOMC This Week

Download PDF


U.S. stock index futures are higher ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings reports, a Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting and a heavy slate of economic reports.

In addition, investors will be monitoring developments on a highly anticipated U.S. stimulus package.

June durable goods orders were up 7.3% when an increase of 6.5% was expected.

The July Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index will be released at 9:30. The figure for June was 13.6.

U.S. stock index futures continue to have upside momentum.


The U.S. dollar dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years against a basket of major currencies, as investors believe the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates low.

The euro currency is higher after a report showed German business sentiment rose in July, beating forecasts and increasing for the third consecutive month, according to the Ifo Institute.

The Ifo business-climate index came in at 90.5 in July from an upwardly revised 86.3 in June. Economists had forecast a reading of 89.0.

In addition, in light of the increased tensions between the U.S. and China, the euro currency has become a safe haven at the expense of the U.S. dollar.

Other safe haven currencies advanced, such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.


Futures are higher on the belief that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates lower for a prolonged period.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked down to 0.572% from 0.589% Friday.

The Treasury will auction two and five year notes today.

There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today.

Federal Reserve officials will meet Tuesday and Wednesday at their regularly scheduled policy meeting.

According to financial futures markets there is a 92.3% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave its fed funds rate unchanged at zero to 25 basis points.

My analysis suggests there will be no change in the fed funds rate at this meeting.

Overall, futures appear to be caught between the bearish influence of more government stimulus and the bullish influence of ongoing historically accommodative central bank policies.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.