Written Commentary
TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 2 cents, HRW up 1; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 4; Soymeal up $4.00, and Soyoil unchanged.
Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 36 yuan in soybeans, down 4 in Corn, up 21 in Soymeal, up 118 in Soyoil, and up 116 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 60 ringgit at 3,130 (basis January) at midsession, near a 10 month high on a tight stock outlook.
South America Weather Forecast: The Brazilian growing regions has hit and miss, moderate rainfall amounts for 75% of the area over the next 6 to 10 days. Temps will be below average for the week turning to average to a bit above by the end of the week/weekend. The Argentine growing regions continues with limited rainfall over the next 6 to 10 days with rainfall south and west of growing areas. Temps run below average.
The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; bought 9,000 Corn; bought 10,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 3,000 Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 41,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 225,000 Corn; net long 215,000 Soybeans; net long 80,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 90,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 1,000 contracts; HRW Wheat down 1,600; Corn up 10,100; Soybeans down 5,300 contracts; Soymeal up 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,100.
Deliveries were 14 for Soybeans.
There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 72)—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 447; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 223; Rice 282; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,195.
Tender Activity—Japan seeks 91,000t optional-origin wheat—
Private analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness, formerly known as IEG Vantage, on Tuesday cut its forecast of the average U.S. 2020 corn yield to 175.7 bushels per acre (bpa), from 177.8 a month ago, according to traders and an IHS client note seen by Reuters.
The firm estimated U.S. corn production at 14.502 billion bushels, compared with its Oct. 2 figure of 14.812 billion. For soybeans, IHS Markit forecast the average U.S. 2020 yield at 50.8 bpa, down from its Oct. 2 figure of 51.9. The firm put soybean production at 4.183 billion bushels, down from 4.294 billion bushels last month.
China is expected to ban imports of Australian wheat, putting a A$560 million (HK$3 billion) trade in doubt, with the grain becoming the latest to join a list of new blocks on products from the country, according to industry sources.
The Ukrainian pig and poultry growers associations have asked the government to set a maximum volume of corn available for export in the 2020/21 season due to a sharp jump in fodder costs that could push up meat prices. Ukraine is among the world’s largest corn producers and exporters but poor weather this year could reduce the harvest to 33 million tonnes from 35.9 million tonnes in 2019, according to economy ministry estimates. Some analysts and traders see the harvest at 27-29 million tonnes. Ukraine also faces a smaller harvest of wheat, barley and some oilseeds.
French soft wheat shipments outside the European Union in October reached their highest monthly level for the season, buoyed by a record volume of exports to China, an initial estimate based on Refinitiv data showed.
Malaysian palm futures hit a near 10-month high on Wednesday, riding on expectations of a drop in October stockpiles and lower output, although volatile global trading ahead of the U.S. election results limited gains.
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