Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are now lower. New Month. SU is unch and near 13.70. SMU is near 424.8. BOU is near 63.07. CU is down 1 cent and near 5.02. WU is down 8 cents and near 6.57. KWU is down 5 cents and near 8.07. MWU is down 1 cent and near 8.54. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower and near $81. Gold is lower. Coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher
Soybean futures are unchanged. Managed funds sold 25,000 soybean and 9,000 soyoil contracts on Monday. SU-SX spreads is still 40 cent inverse. US board crush margins remain positive. USDA dropped US corn crop ratings 2 pct to 55 G/E. Best crops are in TN, MS, KY, AR, IN and OH. Lowest rated crops are in IL, KS, MI, MO, and MN. US exports are near 50.5 mmt or down 6 pct vs ly. Brazil are shifting seasonal exports logistics to corn. EU Matif rapeseed continues lower on harvest pressure, crusher covered and Ukraine imports. Dalian soybean and soymeal future are trying to find support. Palmoil and soyoil are lower. There are no August soymeal deliveries. There were 3 soyoil deliveries.
Corn futures are slightly lower. Funds sold 15,000 corn. CU-CZ spread is 9 cent carry. Lower US river water levels is pushing barge freight higher and basis lower. USDA dropped US corn crop ratings 2 pct to 55 G/E. Best crops are in TN, IN and OH. Lowest rated crops are in IL, KS, MI, MO, and MN. US exports are near 34.8 mmt or down 33 pct vs ly. Brazil is shifting seasonal exports to corn. There is talk that Ukraine Danube ports of Remi and Izmail are back working. Overnight, drones attacked Moscow. Ukraine July corn exports were near 1.1 mmt equal to ly. Romania and Croatia are talking about plans to support Ukraine exports.
Wheat futures are lower. WU-WZ spread is near 26 cent carry. Lack of export demand could increase stored grain. Managed funds sold 16,000 Chicago wheat on Monday and are short 77,000. USDA dropped US spring crop ratings 7 pct to 42 G/E. US exports are near 2.7 mmt or down 5 pct vs ly. There is talk that Ukraine Danube ports of Remi and Izmail are back working. Overnight, drones attacked Moscow. Romania and Croatia are talking about plans to support Ukraine exports to EU ports.
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