Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 18 cents and near 15.68. SX is up 18 cents and near 14.21. SMN is near 393.5. BON is near 69.61. CN is up 13 cents and near 6.75. CZ is up 15 cents and near 5.81. WN is up 7 cents and near 6380. KWN is up 7 cents and near 6.31. MWN is up 13 cents and near 7.85.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 17 1/4 in SRW, up 15 1/4 in HRW, up 58 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 15 3/4; Soybeans up 43; Soymeal down $0.37; Soyoil up 4.09. Corn and soybean open interest continue to drop. Last 6 weeks, average soybean trading range has been 85 cents and corn 68 cents. This limits both new buying and selling.
USDA 10 day weather forecast is dry and warm for US north plains, upper Midwest and PNW. West Europe is dry. East Europe seeing rains. Russia spring wheat areas dry. East China dry.
Dalian corn, soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures are all lower overnight.
Argentina corn harvest 34 pct crop 46 mmt, soybean harvest 97 crop 43.5 mmt.
USDA June WASDE S/D June 10. Analyst est US 2020/21 soybean carryout 110 and corn 1,030. Analyst est US 2021/22 corn acres near 93.0 carryout 1,150, soybean acres 88.5 carryout 110. Some est US June 1 corn stocks near 4,040 mil bu vs 5,019 ly, beans 776 vs 1,396 wheat 841 vs 1,028.
Weekly US new crop export sales est near 250-500 mt wheat, 300-900 corn and 0-400 mt soybeans.
Ukraine has sold China 9.5 mmt old crop corn, New crop sales 5-7 mmt to date. Russia wheat crop est 81 mmt vs USDA 85 and est 78-81. Russia and EU farmer not selling
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 12,000 corn; 7,000 soybeans; 2,000 soymeal and 6,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 305,000 Corn; long 159,000 Soybeans; long 27,000 Soymeal, and; net long 102,000 Soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.