Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 13.57. SMZ is near 398.7. BOZ is near 61.80. CZ is unch and near 4.80. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.95. KWZ is unch and near 7.36. MWZ is unch and near 7.83. US stocks are higher. Higher US consumer spending is offering support. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher and near $91. Gold, silver, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. Copper is lower.
Soybean futures are slightly lower. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. N/C Brazil and W Argentina are dry. S Brazil and NE Argentina are wet. Brazil and Argentina dryness could switch corn acres to beans. US August NOPA crush est at 168.0 mil bu vs 165.0 ly. SBO stocks 1.483 mil lbs vs 1,564 last month and 1,525 ly. US soybean export commit is down 34 pct vs ly. Some feel USDA may be underestimating demand for US soyoil for biofuel.
Corn futures remain near key support. Dalian corn futures are higher. CZ appears unable to trade over 5.00 due to high US carryout and harvest pressure while may not be able to trade below 4.70 due to competitor exporters logistic problems. There are unconfirmed rumors that China is buying Ukraine corn. New vessels have not been named yet but insurance is available. US corn export commits down 9 pct vs ly. Overnight Russia launched 22 drones on Ukraine. 17 were shot down. Trade watching US corn harvest yields and farmer selling pattern. Some still look for a post harvest rally on tightening pipeline supplies.
Wheat futures are mixed. Increase Black Sea tension offers support. Dry Australia weather continues. Consumers has good OND coverage but remain uncovered for 2024. Key is will they buy the carry or wait. Appears Russia will continue to average record monthly wheat exports near 5.0 mmt. US wheat export commit is down 19 pct vs ly.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.