Stock Indexes Advance on Strong ADP Report


U.S. stock index futures were lower in the overnight trade but were able to recover to higher on the day after a series of stronger than expected U.S. economic reports.

The September Chicago PMI was 62.4 when 52.1 was expected.

Private sector employment increased by 749,000 from August to September according to the ADP National Employment Report. This compares to the anticipated increase of 650,000. The August report was revised to show an increase of 481,000 from a previously reported 428,000 gain.

The second quarter gross domestic product report showed a 31.4% decline, which compares to the anticipated down 31.7%.

The 9:00 central time August pending home sales index is estimated to be up 3.1%.

S&P 500, Dow and NASDAQ futures remain above downtrend lines that started in early September.


There was support for the euro currency on news that German jobless claims fell for the third consecutive month in September and beat expectations. Jobless claims declined by 8,000 in September after falling by 9,000 in August. Economists had forecast a decrease of 6,000.

In addition, the adjusted unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.4% in August, which is below the 6.4% that was forecast.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde signaled a possible change to the ECB’s strategy to align it with that of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which would probably allow the rate of inflation to overshoot after missing the central bank’s target for years.


Federal Reserve speakers today are Neel Kashkari at 8:30, Michelle Bowman at 12:40 and Robert Kaplan at 5:00 p.m.

Interest rate market futures at the short end of the curve are likely to be supported by ideas that major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will keep short term interest rates low for an extended period. Many analysts believe it will be several years, possibly not until 2023, before the Federal Reserve will be in a position to hike its fed funds rate, which currently stands at zero to 25 basis points.

However, futures at the long end of the curve, especially the 30-year Treasury bond futures may be undermined by the inflationary aspects of the Federal Reserve’s “average inflation targeting” policy, along with the potential for a global economic recovery.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 98.8% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at the November 4-5 policy meeting.

Click here for full report

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.