Stock Index Futures Near Record Highs


U.S. stock index futures are higher and are close to record highs.

The 8:45 central time November PMI manufacturing final index is expected to be 56.7.

The 9:00 November Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index is anticipated to be 57.7 and the 9:00 October construction spending report is predicted to be up 0.8%.

At 9:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify on the CARES Act before the Senate. Several of those programs will end December 31. In prepared remarks, Powell stressed the importance of the lending programs through the act. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is also expected to testify.


The U.S. dollar is weaker and yesterday hit its lowest level since May 2018.

Longer term, the U.S. dollar is likely to drift lower due to expectations for an extended period of low interest rates and concerns over rising U.S. levels of debt.

The euro currency is higher and yesterday reached its highest level since September 2. Today’s gains are linked to news that final Markit PMI data showed euro zone factory activity grew faster than originally thought in November and business confidence improved to over a 2-1/2-year high.

German jobless claims fell, beating expectations. Jobless claims fell 39,000 in November after falling by a revised 38,000 in October. Economists had forecast an increase of 10,000. Also, the adjusted unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 6.2% in October, which is below the 6.3% forecast by economists.

The British pound advanced to a three-month high before paring some of the gains. The pound was supported by better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data, along with hopes of a post-Brexit trade deal.

The Reserve Bank of Australia left official interest rates unchanged at record lows at its policy meeting today, while signaling rising confidence for the future.

The RBA left its official cash rate at 0.10% and maintained its three-year government bond yield target at the same level. The central bank also recommitted to its $100 billion Australian dollar quantitative easing program, which it announced in November.

The real gross domestic product in Canada grew by 8.9% on a quarterly basis in the third quarter after a contraction of 11.3% in the second quarter. On a yearly basis, the economy expanded by 40.5% in the third quarter but missed the market expectation for growth of 47.6%.


Futures are steady at the front end of the yield curve and are sharply lower at the long end, especially the 30-year Treasury bond futures.

In addition to Fed Chair Powell, other Federal Reserve speakers today are Lael Brainard at 10:00, Mary Daly at 12:15 and Charles Evans at 2:00.

Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at zero to 25 basis points at the December 16 policy meeting.

In the months ahead the yield curve is likely to steepen, which should put pressure on futures at the long end of the curve, especially the 30-year Treasury bond futures, while futures at the short end of the curve are likely to hold steady.

Click here for full report

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.