Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 9 cents and near 13.45. SX is up 8 cents and near 13.36. SMU is near 356.4. BOU is near 62.37. CU is down 2 cents and near 5.53. CZ is down12 cent and near 5.52. WU is up 4 cents and near 7.17. KWU is up 5 cents and near 6.96. MWU is up 6 cents and near 9.09.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.
For the week so far wheat prices are up 12 1/2 in SRW, up 22 in HRW, up 4 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 5 1/2; Soybeans down 15 3/4; Soymeal up $0.42; Soyoil down 1.70.
Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 10 yuan ; Soymeal unchanged; Soyoil up 34; Palm oil down 6; Corn down 4 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 63 ringgit (+1.49%) at 4280
Over next 5 days rains should fall in IA, MN, WI, N IL and MI. Dry elsewhere. Temps warm. 8-14 day is warm and dry across most of the Midwest, north plains and Canada prairies.
Private est of US 2021 corn yield 176.5-176.9 vs USDA 179.5. Soybean 50.0-51.5 vs USDA 50.8. Sep-July census US soybean exports 2,242 mil bu in line with USDA 2,290. US carryout 150 vs USDA 135. Sep-July census US corn exports in line with USDA 2,850. US carryout 1,050 vs USDA 1,082. USDA est of US wheat exports near 875 mil bu only 11.7 pct of World trade. Pct record low.
SU flag formation support 13.16, resistance 13.90. Moving ave resistance 13.62, 13.67 and 13.73. CU flag formation support 5.41, resistance 5.83. Moving ave resistance 5.55, 5.58 and 5.70. Key WU support 6.80-6.90. Resistance 7.38. KWZ-CZ spread support +142, resistance +167.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net sellers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; and 2,000 soyoil, and bought 1,000 soybeans; 1,000 soymeal and 6,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 4,000 SRW Wheat; long 235,000 Corn; net long 89,000 Soybeans; net long 18,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 56,000 lota of soyoil.
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