Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply higher. SK is up 32 cents and near 16.92. SMK is near 469.8. BOK is near 74.35. CK is up 18 cents and near 7.73. WK is up the 85 cent limit and near 12.94. KWK is up 82 cents and near 12.96. MWK is up the 60 cent limit and near 12.07.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $119. Crude did test $126. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are called higher. Gold is trading near $2,002. All time high is $2,063. Ukraine War is adding risk premium to commodities. GSI commodity index is near 820. High was 893.
Iraq for 2 mmt wheat. Hungary banning all grain exports. Russia banning fertilizer exports. China is reporting that their winter wheat crop conditions worse ever. Some now estimate the US 2022/23 HRW carryout below 300 mil bu. Below 200 without rain. Some estimate Black Sea wheat exports down 15 mmt. WN23 is near 8.71. CN23 is near 6.26. KWN23 is near 10.69.
USDA March World crop report on Wed. CONAB crop update on Thur. USDA will need to decide either use CONAB Brazil soybean crop of 125 or trade est of 129. US soybean export prices 75 cents below Brazil. SA soybean crop could be down 20 mmt. Some analyst estimate US soybeans 2021/22 carryout near 220 USDA 325. SX23 is near 14.69.
Some estimate Black Sea corn exports could be down 15 mmt. South America corn exports could be down 10 mmt. Some analyst estimate US corn 2021/22 carryout near 1,200 USDA 1,540. CZ23 is near 6.49. US Delta and Ohio Valley will see above normal rains. Could slow plantings. US WCB and plains forecast drier and colder than normal. N Argentina and S Brazil saw good rains. Could help final yields there. C/N Brazil dry. Could speed harvest there. Dry weather could stress Brazil corn.
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