Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are higher. SN is up 28 cents and near 16.42. SX is up 10 cents and near 14.41. SMN is near 451.7. BON is near 65.50. CK is near 7.50. CN is up 4 cents and near 7.26. CZ is up 2 cents and near 6.13. WN is up 2 cents and near 7.44. KWN is up 2 cents and near 7.12. MWN is up 6 cents and near 7.76. US stocks are lower. Inflations worries? Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher Copper is higher. Lumber is limit down again.
Chinese Ag futures for (September) settled up 87 yuan in soybeans (at U.S. $26.30), up32 in Corn (at $11.27), up 83 in Soymeal (at $528), up 224 in Soyoil (at 63.58 cents), and up 206 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 174 ringgit at 4,524 (basis July) at midsession, a record high.
Financial trades will be watching todays US CPI data. US stocks lower on inflation concerns.
US 7 day rains in KS, OK, MO, C IL. 6-10 days warm with normal rains. 8-14 warm with normal rain.
Today’s trade is all about USDA critical May report and strong US soybean domestic basis. US soybean crushers margins positive and they continue to bid up for soybeans.
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,275 vs 1,352, beans 118 vs 120 and wheat 850 vs 852
Trade est US 2021 corn crop near 15,029, soybeans 4,431 and all wheat 1,912
Trade est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,327, soybean 133 and wheat 751.
US soybean trend yield times March acres minus forecasted demand suggest 2021/22 carryout 25. Private analyst est US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,009, beans 108 and wheat 719. US corn trend yield times March acres minus forecasted demand suggest 1,165 carryout.
Key will be Brazil corn crop est, China corn imports and US 2020/21 corn and soybean demand. One crop watchers lowered Brazil corn crop to 97 mmt, raised Brazil soybean crop 1 mmt to 134. Same crop watcher estimated Argentina corn crop up 1 mmt to 46.5. Left Argentina soybean at 45
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 11,000 Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; net bought 7,000 Soymeal, and; bought 4,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 378,000 Corn; long 212,000 Soybeans; long 62,000t Soymeal, and; net long 91,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 4,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,200; Corn up 6,200; Soybeans up 3,700 contracts; Soymeal up 7,300 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,400.
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