Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Price uncertainty continues. SU is down 7 cents and near 13.91. SX is down 5 cents and near 13.83. SMU is near 367.7. BOU is near 65.03. CU is up 2 cents and near 5.74. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.68. WU is up 5 cents and near 7.05. KWU is up 5 cents and near 6.65. MWU is down 6 cents and near 9.10. Sep oats at new highs and near 4.62.
US stocks are higher. More confidence that US will handle new virus. Crude is higher. Crude and Commodity Index held key support.
EU weather model hot/dry US west Midwest next 10 days. N Plains dry. GFS dry but not as hot in IA. Soybean futures flag technical formation support 13.53 with resistance 14.17. US summer weather key.
Word that China bought 5 Argentina soybean cargoes of Aug-Sep. China US new crop demand slow. US soybean fob price $567. Brasil $563, Argentina $539. US soymeal fob $432, Argentina $388.
Canada canola futures lower on forecast of rain in S Manitoba and SE Saskatchewan. To little to late?
Dalian soybean futures were lower, corn, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil all higher.
Sep corn near 5.76 resistance. Uncertain US weather/slow export pace keeps CU from filling 5.88 gap. US farmer not selling/buyers covered for now. Weekly ethanol data show slight increase in stocks.
Managed funds unwilling to add to corn longs given negative seasonal and slow export demand pace. US fob corn prices near $282, Argentina $240, Brazil $264, Ukraine $274.
Chicago and KC wheat futures making 2 month highs. EU wheat lower on better harvest weather. Minneapolis wheat lower on profit taking and talk of Canada rain and Ag Canada raised wheat yield? WU resistance near 7.20. KWU 6.80. MWU support 9.00 with resistance near 9.50. US HRW export prices near $310, Baltic $256, Germany $262, Russia $251, French $258
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 10,000 corn; 9,000 soybeans; 2,000 soymeal and 2,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 SRW Wheat; long 225,000 Corn; net long 86,000 Soybeans; net long 22,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 52,000 Soyoil.
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