Mixed to Higher Start in Grains

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 13.00. SMZ is near 342.1. BOZ is near 58.04. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.35. 5.44 key resistance. WZ is down 1 cent and near 7.10. KWZ is down 1 cent and near 7.15. MWZ is unch and near 9.04.

US stocks are marginally lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed but near contract highs. More concern about US/UK Nat Gas supplies.

Tech speaking; CZ and SX traded over initial resistance. Next; CZ 5.44, SX 13.27. WZ resistance 7.19.

Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. N/C Brazil dry. N/E Argentina rains. Russia and US winter wheat areas dry for planting 2022 crop.

Big debate on final US corn and soybean yield. Early corn yields below expectations. Farmer not selling. Most will use USDA 176.3 corn, 50.6 soybean yields. Dry end to summer has some near 170.0 and 49.5. Next big USDA report is Sep 30 stocks report. USDA corn 1,187, beans 175. Cash corn strong.

Dalian soybean, soyoil, palmoil are higher. Corn and soymeal lower. Malaysian palmoil closed. China soybean Crush margins positive. Need soybeans. China economy slowing. Sell copper reserves. Lower Canada canola crop is helping World rapeseed prices. Higher demand helping palmoil. Trade still thinks Russia wheat exports lower. 90 pct harvested.  Crop could be near 70 mmt. Wheat futures supported by lower Canada supplies, EU quality and improving global trade.

Most analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near USDA 1,187, but 21/22 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,408. Most analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near USDA 175, but 21/22 near 150 vs USDA 185. Most analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 565 vs USDA 615.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.