Written Commentary
Busier day for data, and even busier for central bank speakers; digesting better than expected French & German Consumer Confidence; awaiting US Goods Trade Balance, CS & FHFA House Prices & Consumer Confidence; Europe and China power crises, US debt ceiling drama may well drown out central bank speakers (Lagarde, Powell plus many others); Dutch 8-yr & US 7-yr sales
US House Prices: low inventories, pandemic relocations to spur further sharp rise, despite rising affordability headwinds
US Consumer Confidence: modest rebound expected as infection rates ease; solid labour demand expected to underpin
Link to today’s GI Daily Energy Market Forum Podcast with Marc’s participation. Click here to listen.
EVENTS PREVIEW
A much busier day for data, above all in the US, which sees another deluge of central bank speakers and also offers the annual OPEC World Oil Outlook. On the data agenda there are China’s Industrial Profits, Australian Retail Sales along with German and French Consumer Confidence, while ahead lie US Goods Trade Balance, FHFA & CS CoreLogic House Prices and perhaps most importantly Consumer Confidence. The ECB’s annual Central Banking Forum kicks off with mroe from Lagarde, while BoE’s Mann follows on from Bailey yesterday offering her thoughts on the inflation outlook at the US annual NABE Conference, which will also has an appearance by US Treasury Secretary Yellen, with plenty more Fed, BoE, ECB, SNB and Riksbank speakers. There are govt debt sales in Japan (40-yr), Netherlands (8-yr) and the US (7-yr). But with power supply problems multiplying, above all in China, and a raft of other supply chain bottlenecks around the world, and per se creating additional inflationary pressures, however transitory they prove to be or not, there are good reasons to be sceptical about global growth prospects in Q4.
U.S.A. – July House Prices, Sept Consumer Confidence
Both House Price measures (CS &FHFA) are expected to accelerate to fresh all-time highs (CS consensus 20.0% y/y vs. June 19.1%), primarily due to low inventories, pandemic relocation and despite increasingly sharp headwinds due to affordability. But it will be Consumer Confidence which gets rather more attention after a sharp drop in August on the back of the spike in infection rates, which have since eased somewhat, while labour demand remains robust, with the August Labour Differential remaining very close to its highs despite the drop in the headline index, which also had only a modest impact on house, auto or major appliance purchase intentions, in contrast to the Michigan surveys, though the setback in equities may weigh, with a marginal bounce in the headline reading to 115.0 from 113.8 expected.
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ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
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