Macroeconomics: The Day Ahead – 25 January 2021

Good Morning: The Long & the Short of it and The Bigger Picture

Written by Marc Ostwald, ADMISI’s Global Strategist & Chief Economist

  • German Ifo and US Dallas Fed Manufacturing only data items of note as week gets off to quiet start, raft of ECB speakers and US kicks off mammoth debt issuance week
  • Ifo: setback seen after December bounce, expectations seen rising, current conditions drifting down
  • Week Ahead: US, Eurozone prov. Q4 GDP readings, surveys, FOMC meeting,  IMF World Economic outlook update and deluge of US and other earnings


The week gets off to a slow start in data and earnings terms, but has a raft of ECB speakers to contend with, as the World Economic Forum (aka Davos) gets under way virtually. Statistically there are the German Ifo Business Climate and in the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing, while tonight brings the first of this week’s slew of provisional Q4 GDP readings from South Korea. The US kicks off this week’s mammoth $461 Bln funding exercise with $60 Bln of 2-yr T-Note and $105 Bln 3 & 6-mth T-Bills. Germany Ifo’s Business Climate is expected to slip to 91.4 after a small but stronger than expected bounce to 92.1 in December, with Expectations seen rising to 93.6, while Current Conditions are expected to dip to 90.6 – in principle echoing the flash PMIs last week.


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