Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 17 cents and near 13.376 SMZ is near 357.2. BOZ is near 60.40. CZ is down 5 cents and near 5.59. WZ is down 6 cents and near 7.45. KWZ is down 9 cents and near 7.27. MWZ is down 3 cents and near 9.07.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar Is higher and 10 month high. Crude is lower and 3 month low. US Fed tapering talk negative stocks. Covid spread could slow commodity demand. Inflation worries.
Next week, US Midwest will turn cooler/wetter. Russia dry. Brazil dry. Argentina dry. EU wet. Dalian soybean futures, corn, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil lower. China soybean buying slow.
Pro Farmer est IL corn yield at 196 vs USDA 214 and 192 ly. IA district 183/201/192 vs 181/172/184 ly. Pro Farmer IL soybean pod count 1,279 vs 1,247 ly. IA district 1,089/1,225/1,367 vs 1,013/1,177/1,164.
Weekly US wheat export sales est 250-500 mt, corn 200-900, soybeans 1,000-1,800.
US July cattle of feed est at 98 pct, placements 93, marketing 96 vs last year. Oct cattle testing highs near 129. Support 128. Oct hogs testing 89. Gap support 87.25. 89.70 gap.
Brazil north region dry as 1st corn crop begins planting. La Nina could dry NE Argentina, S Brazil in 2022. Brazil domestic corn prices remain near $8.00 through March 2022. Reduced export supplies.
French wheat futures higher. N France quality down. Russia wheat prices higher. Ban on harvest data? Egypt paid $294-$296 for wheat, highest in 6 years and up $35 in just 16 days.
Canada canola crop could be closer to 12 mmt vs USDA 16. Russia dry sunseed crop stressed. SX support 13.08. Resistance 13.50, SMZ 353-360, BOZ 59.37-61.40, CZ 5.56-5.63, WZ 7.35-7.54.
On USDA Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 1,000 corn, and sold 5,000 soybeans; 2,000 soyoil and 1,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed Money net long 29,000 SRW Wheat; long 268,000 Corn; net long 98,000 Soybeans; net long 28,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 63,000 lots of soyoil.
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