Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SX is down 9 cents and near 12.37. SMZ is near 326.2. BOZ is near 58.27. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.38. WZ is unch and near 7.55. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.56. MWZ is down 1 cent and near 9.27. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is mixed.
Biden administration will announce today US and China trade relations and desire China meets deal. US stocks may be concerned about US debt ceiling and higher t-bills. China Evergrande concern. OPEC meeting today. Some fear they could announce increase in production levels.
US Midwest and north plains dry. La Nina could dry US south plains. W EU wet. Russia dry. There were heavy rains in Parana Brazil. Dry elsewhere. BA Argentina saw rains. Dry elsewhere.
Charts and numbers have turned negative soybean futures. SX lowest level since June 17. US Sep-Nov soybean exports 665 vs ly record 1,091, crush 550 vs 559, Dec 1 stocks 3,306 vs 2,947. SMZ lowest levels since 0ctober, 2020. BOZ has rallied from 54.18 to 59.50. 60.00 resistance.
CZ remains in an uptrend since Sep 10 low. Still in a 5.26 to 5.48 range. Harvest limits new buying. US Sep-Nov corn exports 435 vs 449 ly, feed/residual 2,400 vs 2,726, industrial use 1,637 vs 1,615. Some estimate US corn yield near 173, exports 2,700 and 21/22 carryout 1,000 vs USDA 1,408. Most look for US corn harvest to be near 37 pct. Yields lower. Soybean harvest 30. Yields higher.
Talk of lower Russia wheat exports plus countries banning Argentina GMO wheat is supportive. Fact USDA dropped winter wheat crop more than spring wheat is helping WZ and KWZ gain on MWZ. USDA could estimate World exporters stocks to use ratio record low in October. WZ could test 8.50-9.00. US 21/22 wheat crop 1,628. Carryout 572 vs USDA 615. HRW 305 vs 347, SRW 96 vs 99, HRS 119 vs 111.
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