Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
U.S. stock index futures are substantially higher, following better equity markets overseas.
U.S. lawmakers are on track to pass the $1.9 trillion stimulus package with the House expected to pass the bill today or tomorrow.
The February National Federation of Independent Business small business optimism index was 95.8 when 96.0 was expected. The NFIB is a monthly measure of small businesses in the U.S., which account for almost half of private sector jobs.
Stock index futures are performing well for the news.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is lower after making a four-month high yesterday, and the euro currency bounced from yesterday’s four-month low.
The euro advanced on news that German exports unexpectedly were higher in January. The country’s exports increased 1.4% in January from December when economists had forecast a 1.8% decline.
The Japanese yen fell to a new 9-month low against the U.S. dollar after it was reported that Japan’s economy expanded slightly less than initially estimated in the October-December quarter. Japan’s economy grew 2.8% on the quarter in the October-December period. This compares with the 3.0% expansion in a preliminary estimate released in mid-February.
The Australian dollar is higher after it was reported that Australian business confidence continued to improve in February. An Australian business confidence index was +16 in February, which compares to +12 in January and Australian business conditions were +15 in February, which compares to +9 in January.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
The Treasury will auction 3-year notes today.
Robert Kaplan of the Federal Reserve will speak at 5:05 this afternoon.
The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for March 17.
The June 30-year Treasury bond futures are higher and are testing a three-week downtrend line.
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