Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 7 cents and near 12.84. SMZ is near 337.1. BOZ is near 58.50 CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.13. WZ is up 1 cent and near 7.21. KWZ is unch and near 7.17. MWZ is unch and near 9.07. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Downgrade of US equities by various Brokerage houses is weighing on US stocks to near support.
One commercial gulf exporter is loading boats. Remaining terminals still without power. Barges moving. Low weekly corn and soybean exports weighed on futures. Barge freight higher which weighed on basis.
Word China is frustrated they cannot buy US soybeans, Brazil and Argentina supplies limited. Lack of new US export corn sales especially to China is weighing on prices, basis and spreads.
World wheat import interest increasing. Egypt tender for wheat. US HRW sale to Nigeria a surprise. US SRW prices competitive to buyers. Increase concern over EU quality and lower Russia supplies. Dalian corn, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil futures are higher. Corn futures are lower.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields.
USDA rated US corn crop 59 G/E vs 60 lw. Crops improved in IA, MN, IN, MO dropped in IL, NE,MI,OH. USDA rated US soybean crop 57 G/E vs 56 lw. Crops improved in IA, MN, IN, MO dropped in IL, AR,MI,OH. 21 pct of corn crop is mature, 18 pct of soybean crop dropping leaves. US WW planting 5 pct vs 3 ave.
Average trade guess for US corn yield is 175.8 vs USDA 174.6. Crop 14,942 vs USDA 14,750. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 50.5 vs USDA 50.0 Crop 4,377 vs USDA 4,339.
Trade est US 20/21 corn carryout near 1,169 vs USDA 1,117. 21/22 carryout 1,382 vs 1,242. Trade est US 20/21 soybean carryout near 166 vs USDA 160. 21/22 carryout 190 vs 155. Trade est World 21/22 corn stocks at 286 mt vs 284, soybean 97 vs 96, wheat 279 vs 279. Canada July 31 stocks est today, Wheat est 4.8 mmt vs 5.5 ly, Canola 1.2 vs 3.1 ly.
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