Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 8 cents and near 13.68. SMZ is near 407.1. BOZ is near 62.57. CZ is down 2 cents and near 4.88. WZ is down 1 cent and near 6.38. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 7.60. MWZ is unch and near 8.03. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed.
Soybean futures are higher. Pro Farmer tour found IL soybean pod count at 1,270 vs 1,249 ly and 1,258 3 year average. IA soybean pod count is 1,137,1,120 and 1,170 vs 1,089, 1,258 and 1,223 ly and 1,064, 1,220 and 1,251 3 year average. Pod counts on the Pro Farmer crop tour are favorable, but will need rain to achieve yield potential. SX is now above all moving averages with resistance near 13.73 and a gap near 13.75. Dalian soymeal prices were lower while soybean, palmoil and soyoil were higher. There is talk that Brazil could slow crush. This could increase demand for US soymeal exports. Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 550-1,450 vs 1,500 last week.
Corn futures are lower. Pro Farmer tour found IL corn yield at 193.7 vs 190.7 ly and 192.1 3 year average. IA corn yield is 182.5, 168.7 and 184.8 vs 181.1, 180.8 and 173.7 ly and 182.1, 184.7 and 183.6 3 year average. Corn futures are trying to hold 4.80 support. Some feel higher Brazil corn export prices and hot and dry US Midwest crop conditions is offering support. Bears feel prices will continue to be under pressure as US harvest will start mid September, China has increase applications for corn imports. USDA est China imports at 23 mmt vs 18 ly. Corn trying to find value with US yield uncertain, ongoing Ukraine war, SA weather and approaching US harvest. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 200-1,000 mt vs 938 last week.
Wheat futures are lower. There is no clear picture of Russian market and there was no fresh news on the Ukraine insurance scheme, EU quality is clearly an issue, and the S Hemisphere shows little sign of any needed rain. There is little specific fresh news, and the trade now awaits next week’s Stats Canada crop update. Australia, Argentina and Black Sea are dry. EU is wet. There are also rumors Russia wheat is now being shipped to India. India food inflation especially record high rice prices could support futures. Summer extreme volatility is reducing trade interest and volume. Chicago open interest is up 100,000 contracts since season high and recent low. Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 250-450 mt vs 359 last week.
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