Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 2 cents and near 12.44. SMZ is near 324.5. BOZ is near 60.38. CZ is up 2 cents and near 5.34. WZ is up 3 cents and near 7.49. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.48. MWZ is up 7 cents and near 9.46. MWZ is at new highs. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.
US stocks are higher after Congress agreed to raise the debt ceiling. Infrastructure bill still in question. Crude oil futures traded lower on higher US supply. Nat Gas lower on new Russia supplies to UK.
Corn, soybeans and ethanol futures may be supported by talk of new China interest. China on Holiday.
US Midwest dry. US south Plains and Russia wheat areas dry. North plains rains. East Midwest wet.
Weekly US wheat export sales est at 200-500 mt, corn 350-800 mt, soybeans 600-1,200 mt.
Central Brazil is dry. Rains are coming. Late dryness reducing 1st corn crop acres add to 2nd crop. Argentina is dry and will be dry the next 10 days. Argentina talking banning new corn and wheat exports.
Lower weekly SX close the lowest since late March. Board soybean crush margins highest since Oct 20. Some could see higher US soybean 2020 supplies, final US 2021 soybean crop and higher 2022 acres. Domestic US soymeal basis firm on end user buying and some rail logistics issues.
Matif/Canada rapeseed futures higher. EU rapeseed crushers downtime. Malaysian palmoil lower.
CZ in an uptrend since Sep 10 low. Still in a 5.26 to 5.48 range. Cash firm. Key now is demand. Private estimates of US October US corn yield near 176.7. USDA 176.3. US harvest yields improving.
Weekly US ethanol prod was up 7 pct from last week on positive margins. Stocks lower than last week.
Matif corn futures higher on slow EU harvest. Ukraine harvest slow. Crop 37 mmt vs USDA 39. USDA could estimate World wheat exporters stocks to use ratio record low. Matif wheat higher. Egypt bought 240 mt wheat. Prices $5-8 higher than previous purchase. Russia aggressive.
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