Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are sharply higher. SK is 25 cents and near 15.96. SN is near 15.62. SX is near 13.77. SMK is near 432.3. BOK is limit up and near 67.71. CK is up 40 cent limit and near 7.20. CN is near 6.81. CZ is near 5.86. WK is up 29 cents and near 7.68. KWK is up 31 cents and near 7.37. MWK is up 19 cents and near 7.61.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Copper is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (September) settled up 46 yuan in soybeans, up 14 in Corn, up 33 in Soymeal, up 8 in Soyoil, and down 18 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 118 ringgit at 4,012 (basis July) at midsession following rival vegoils
USDA estimated 17 pct of US corn crop is planted vs 20 average. IL is 23 vs 28. IA is 20 vs 22. USDA estimated 8 pct of US soybean crop is planted vs 5 average. IL is 18 vs 6. IA 6 vs 3. AR 26 vs 21. USDA dropped US winter wheat crop rating to 49 pct G/E vs 53 last week. KS is 55.USDA estimated that 28 pct of SU spring wheat crop is planted vs 19 average. ND 22 vs 10.
US May-July Midwest weather forecast is warm and dry. US south plains also warm and dry.
Brazil weather still dry. Corn crop dropping. Brazil may need to import corn and reduce exports. Argentina considering export taxes to keep domestic crop supplies to fight food inflation.
Matif corn futures traded to new highs on concern about cold and dry weather lowering crops. Ukraine corn plantings 2 weeks behind normal due to record cold weather. China is asking for US new crop corn prices. Are expected to take open US unshipped corn sales.
Stats Canada will be out today with 2021 planting intentions. Most look for less wheat more canola.
Palmoil prices higher despite concern about lower India demand. Canada rapeseed prices new highs
Matif wheat futures are at new highs. Concern about large May open interest with cash strong.
US soybean crush margins remain positive. Crushers bidding up for soybeans, Soymeal basis lower.
US corn and soybean demand higher than supply. Need perfect 2021 weather or prices go higher.
On Monday, Managed funds were net buyers of 18,000 contracts of SRW Wheat, 60,000 corn, 16,000 soybeans, 4,000 soymeal, and; 9,000 soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 48,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 536,000 Corn; net long 223,000 Soybeans; long 58,000 Soymeal, and; net long 118,000 Soyoil. There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 10 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 5; Soyoil 968 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 235.
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