Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SK is down 2 cents and near 14.10. SMK is near 420.7. BOK is near 49.76. CK is down 6 cents and near 5.38. WK is down 6 cents near 6.60. KWK is down 6 cents and near 6.38. US stocks are higher but remain in a 31,000-32,000 range. US Dollar is mixed and rangebound between 90-91. Crude is higher and also range bound between 60.00-61.50. Gold is lower. US stocks are up on improving vaccine roll out and hope for a new stimulus package. Gold is down on talk Fed not concerned about rising bond yields.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 163 yuan in soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 2 in Soymeal, down 26 in Soyoil, and down 102 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 37 ringgit at 3,679 (basis May) on ideas higher inventories may take time to rebuild.
In Argentina, net drying will still continue in most of the region through Mar. 10. Last evening’s GFS model run removed rain in much of the nation Mar. 15 – 17. Rain in Brazil will be beneficial for crop development; however, the south will be notably wet through Saturday leading to some fieldwork delays. Far southern and interior southern Brazil are likely to trend drier next week which will benefit fieldwork advancement.
SK is in a broad trading range between 13.80-14.30. Brazil soybean crop is still estimated at a record 133.0 mmt. Harvest is delayed but soybean export prices are down on lack of new China buying. Argentina is dry and crop is lower than USDA guess but may not be enough to push futures higher. Argentina soyoil prices are higher on talk of China, India and Iran interest. US soybean prices up to USDA acre and March 1 stocks numbers. Soymeal futures remain in downtrend while soyoil is back testing 50 cents.
CK is lower on talk of increase South America exports. Brazil crop plantings are delayed but is still estimated near a record 109.0 mmt. Argentina weather is dry but export prices are offered below US. Trade will be watching ethanol numbers today, weekly US export sales, USDA changes to balance sheet on March 9, USDA acre and March 1 stocks number and US spring planting weather. CK is in a 5.30-5.60 range.
WK continues its yo yo trading pattern. Talk of lower EU and Black Sea export supplies has Matif and Black Sea futures in steep inverses. Lack of demand for US exports has US futures in carries. Wheat futures up to Russia export news and north hemisphere spring weather. US plains could see rain tomorrow and late next week.
On Tuesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 17,000 contracts of Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 27,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 353,000 Corn; net long 170,000 Soybeans; net long 67,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 116,000 Soyoil.
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