Grains On The Defensive

MORNING AG OUTLOOK

Grain are lower. SU is down 1 cent and near 14.50. SMU is near 440.1. BOU is near 67.74. CU is down 9 cents and near 5.47. WU is down 21 cents and near 7.39. KWU is down 16 cents and near 8.96. MWU is down 8 cents and near 9.24. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.

Soybeans are lower. Some feel grains are on the defensive before US Fed raises interest rates. Rains are forecast for US upper Midwest. Rest of central Midwest looks dry. Talk of new China stimulus raised hope for increases soybean import demand. Board soybean crush margins are near season high on talk of Higher renewable soyoil demand and fact US new crop soymeal export demand is up 32 pct while Argentina soymeal exports are down 30 pct. India July edible vegoil imports were a record 1.86 mmt, up 42 pct. Matif rapeseed prices are lower due to harvest pressure.

Corn futures are lower. Lack of new Russia attacks on Ukraine is triggering new selling. There is talk that Russia has laid new sea mines near Ukraine ports. EU Ag Ministers are looking for ways to pay for additional transport cost to move Ukraine grain through solidarity lines. US domestic corn basis remains firm on slower farmer selling. Corn trying to find value amidst uncertain Ukraine exports, final US yield and slow demand for US exports. Higher US cattle placements could increase corn feed use esp given higher wheat prices.

Wheat futures are lower led by Chicago. Lack of new Russia attacks on Ukraine is triggering new selling. US domestic wheat basis levels are lower on slow export demand. US exports are down 16 pct vs ly. First day if annual ND wheat crop tour estimated wheat yield near 48.0 vs 40.0 average and 48.9 ly. Wheat futures trade volume may be paralyzed by uncertainty of Ukraine grain exports. There is talk that Russia has laid new sea mines near Ukraine ports. EU Ag Ministers are looking for ways to pay for additional transport cost to move Ukraine grain through solidarity lines.

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