Grains Mixed Post-USDA Report

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SF is up 3 cents and near 11.56. SMF is near 377.3. BOF is near 38.15. CH21 is unch and near 4.20. WH21 is up 3 cents and near 6.00. KWH21 is up 3 cents and near 5.66. US stocks are lower. Brexit? No US stimulus? US Dollar is higher. Crude is mixed. Gold is higher. Copper is lower. What is key; vaccine, SA weather, lower Russia/US 2021 wheat crops, China buying, Money flow? Talk that some Managed funds are buying soybean and corn for potential January rally.

USDA is left US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,702, lowered soybeans to 175, and wheat 862.

Trade estimate US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,465-1,502, soybeans to 30-115, and wheat 847-864.

Trade estimates US 2020/21 corn exports near 2,750-2,900, soybeans 2,275-2,375 and wheat 1,000.

US fob corn prices near $213 vs Argentina, $222, Brazil $236 and Ukraine $230 .

USDA estimated World 2020/21 corn carryout at 289 mmt, soybeans 85, wheat 316.

Early trade estimates of US 2021/22 corn crop is 15,200 mil bu, demand 15,275, carryout 1,500

Early trade estimates of US 2021/22 soybean crop is 4,500 mil bu, demand 4,475, carryout 130

Early trade estimates of US 2021/22 wheat crop is 1,870 mil bu, demand 2,050, carryout 750

USDA is estimated Brazil 2021 corn crop at 110 mmt, soybeans 133. Argentina corn 49 mmt, soybeans 50.

Conab est Brazil corn crop at 102.6 mmt. Brazil/Argentina corn crop est now 375 mil bu below USDA.

Weekly US corn export sales were 1.36 mt, soybeans 569(-715 unknown) and wheat 616.

USDA still estimates SA soybean crop 9 mmt above ly? Avg crop rated 55 G/E vs 67 lw. Soils 30 pct dry.

Wheat future rallied on talk of Russia export restrictions. USDA lowered World end stocks due to higher feed.

On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold  11,000 Corn; 5,000 Soybeans; 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 272,000 Corn; net long 191,000 Soybeans; net long 61,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 115,000 Soyoil.

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