Grains Mixed on Lack of China Buying


Grains are mixed. Managed funds continue to liquidate net soybean and corn longs on a forecast of better central Brazil rains and lack of new China corn and soybean sales. SF is down 9 cents and near 11.52. SMF is near 386.7. BOF is near 36.90. CH21 is down 1 cent and near 4.19. WH21 is up 3 cents and near 5.80. KWH21 is up 2 cents and near 5.41. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unchanged. Gold is higher. Copper is higher.

Rains are forecast for central Brazil, 30 day forecast suggest dry north and south Brazil and Argentina.

President elect Biden said he will not drop Phase I China tariffs immediately. China PMI date 10 year high. OECD estimate China 2021 growth at 8 percent.

US Dollar at 31 month low. Euro at 30 month high.

Lack of new announced US corn and soybean export sales to China negative to futures. Jan soybean near key 11.50 support. Demand bulls suggest good support from 11.40-11.50.  WASDE Nov US soybean stocks to use ratio record low at 4.4 pct. Ratio could drop if US exports increase.

March corn futures could also see higher exports and lower carryout. Key support near 4.10-4.20.

US corn export prices near $216, Argentina $238, Ukraine $230.

US ethanol stocks below last year. Nearby demand slow due to Covid. 2021 demand could increase

US HRW export prices competitive to France and Germany. Matif near 2 week lows. WH near 2 month low

US HRW export price near $258, Russia $253-$254. France $256-$258, Germany $259-$261

Higher Australia supplies and Russia wheat export quotas offset lower than average US winter wheat ratings

Some suggest increase hog hedges above $70. US exports to China slowing. US demand could slow.

On Tuesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 15,000 Corn; 7,000 Soybeans; 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; 4,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 242,000 Corn; net long 207,000 Soybeans; net long 73,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 104,000 Soyoil.

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