Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SX is unch and near 12.51. SMZ is near 322.2. BOZ is near 61.42. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.35. WZ is up 2 cents and near 7.47. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.44. MWZ is up 6 cents and near 9.32. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower.
US/World stocks lower on inflation worries, energy crunch, supply chain issues, US debt ceiling. Equities also watching US stimulus bill, higher US debt, US Bank stimulus. New Zealand raised rates. Cotton highest since 2013 on China buying. Breakfast trade lower; OJ, Hogs and wheat.
US Midwest dry. US south Plains and Russia wheat areas could see rain next week. Brazil rains.
Charts and numbers have turned negative soybean futures. SX lowest level since June 17. Some could see higher final US 2021 soybean crop and potential for higher 2022 acres. Some est China soybean imports 103 mmt vs 98 ly. US 30 vs 35, Brazil 65 vs 57. SMZ lowest levels since 0ctober, 2020. BOZ has rallied from 54.18 to 61.49. Higher energy. Domestic US soymeal basis firm on end user buying and some rail logistics issues.
Matif and Canada rapeseed futures new highs. Malaysian palmoil extends all time high prices. CONAB est Brazil 2021 soybean crop at 135.9 mmt, 2022 143.3. Argentina farmer not selling.
CZ in an uptrend since Sep 10 low. Still in a 5.26 to 5.48 range. Harvest limits new futures buying. Private estimates of US October US corn yield near 176.7. USDA 176.3. US harvest yields improving. Weekly US ethanol prod could be down from last week on plants maintenance despite positive margins.
US Ag attaché est 2021 China corn imports at 30 mmt but 2022 at 20 mmt vs 26. Arg ban corn export. CONAB est Brazil 2021 corn crop at 85.7 mmt, 2022 115 mmt vs USDA 118. Matif corn futures higher on slow EU harvest. EU corn imports down 17 pct. Ukraine harvest slow.
There is rain forecasted for US and Russia winter wheat areas. WZ overbought. Could see correction. USDA could estimate World exporters stocks to use ratio record low in October. Russia Ag Minister estimates wheat exports at 37.5 mmt not the 31.5 circulated in press. Egypt tendering for wheat. East Europe prices lowest. Russia aggressive. US not competitive. Last week Argentina wheat export licenses record 1.7 mmt. Last record Jan, 2020 before export ban.
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