Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SX is up 9 cents and near 12.07. SMZ is near 312.8. BOZ is near 60.42. CZ is down 1 cents and near 5.21. WZ is unch and near 7.34. KWZ is down 2 cents and near 7.37. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 9.56. OZ is near 6.42. US stocks are marginally higher. Crude is unch. US Dollar is lower.
Dalian soybean, palmoil, soyoil and soymeal are lower. Rapeoil and corn higher. Copper prices are higher after China Sep exports were up 28 pct suggesting better economy.
IMF lowers World 2021 growth to 5.9 pct vs 6. Drop due to supply chain and health issues. 2022 4.9 pct.
More showers for US north plains and east Midwest, Argentina and Russia are dry. Brazil rains.
USDA raised US 21/22 soybean carryout from 185 to 320. US/SA supplies up 18 mmt. World stocks up 5. SX dropped from June 7 high near 14.80 to a low overnight of 11.98. Year ago 8.86. China Sep SB imports 6.9 mmt. Oct-Sep 99.8. Crush dropping due to energy shortages. US rated US soybean crop 59 G/E vs 58 lw. Harvest 49. Best crops KY,WI,OH,NE,IL. Lowest MN,SD,ND.
Soymeal futures have dropped from a high on May 12 near 428 to last weeks low of 311 on low demand. Soyoil futures was near 54.18 on Sep 10 on demand worries. Now 60.42. USDA raised US soyoil supply.
USDA raised US corn carryout to 1,500. World stocks up to 301.7. EU corn crush down. Lower supply. US rated US corn crop 60 G/E vs 59 lw. Harvest 41. Best crops KY,TN,MS,WI,OH,NE. Lowest MN,SD,ND. Corn futures rallied from 4.97 on Sep 10 to 5.48 on Sep 30. Now near 5.21. Year ago 3.77.
WZ near 7.34. KWZ near 7.37. MWZ near 9.55. US HRW export prices competitive in 2022. USDA lowered US and Canada wheat crop. EU, India, Australia exports higher. Russia still a coin toss. USDA estimated US winter wheat plantings 60 pct. KS 63, MO 20, WA 88. US carryout lowest in 8 years.
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