Grains Mixed as Trade Watches DC

MORNING OUTLOOK

Grains are mixed. SX is down 3 cents and near 12.84. SMZ is near 339.2. BOZ is near 57.88. CZ is down 1 cent and near 5.38. WZ is up 3 cent and near 7.25. KWZ is up 1 cent and near 7.21. MWZ is up 1 cent and near 9.23. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and near $76.


Crude oil and Nat Gas futures are higher on concern over lower supply vs global demand. UK gas limited. China soybean, corn and soymeal futures are higher. Palmoil and soyoil lower. China holiday next week. China announced they will safeguard housing consumers if Evergrande defaults. Not foreign investors.

Trade watching China for any news on economy. 44 pct of China industry impacted by power shortage. Soybeans rallied on fact China bought US soybeans, talk of lower US harvest yields and higher Crude.

USDA left US soybean crop rated 58 pct G/E vs 64 last year. 16 pct crop harvested vs 13 ave.  MN and ND are ahead of average harvest. AR 25, IL 10, OH 5,  IA 18, MN 30, NE 4, ND 26, SD 17.

Corn rallied on rumors China buying US corn after China CEO was released from Canada and sent home.

USDA left US corn crop rated 59 pct G/E vs 61 last year. 18 pct crop harvested vs 15 ave. IL 21 vs 18 ave, in 15, OH 6,  MO 34, KY 39, TN 43, IA 9, MN 10, NE 13, ND 9, SD 10, and TX 83.

Argentina farmers have stopped corn planting waiting for rain. 1st crop Brazil 30 pct planted, also dry. Brazil Sept corn exports only 2.5 mmt vs 6.5 ly. Matif corn higher on late harvest. Ukraine yields lower.

US 2022 winter wheat plantings 34 pct vs 32 ave. Needed rains are forecasted for US HRW area.  Brazil ban on imported GMO wheat could stop Argentina. 6.7 mmt imports. US/Russia exports? Matif new crop wheat futures traded to new highs on concern and seed and higher fertilizer cost. South America farmers concerned about 2022 crops due to La Nina. US farmers should also be watchful.

US farmers remain reluctant sellers of additional corn crop. Willing to store for higher prices. Same farmers could increase soybean cash sales due to uncertain China buying and 2022 SA crops.

Grain traders will watch to see if Congress raises debt ceiling. USDA will release Sep 1 stocks Thursday. Trade est US Sep 1 wheat stocks 1,852 vs 2,158 ly, corn 1,155 vs 1,919 ly, soybeans 174 vs 525 ly.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.