Grains Higher Overnight

Neutral USDA Report

Grains are higher. SX is up 6 cents and near 10.02. SMZ is near 325.2. BOZ is near 34.22. CZ is up 2 cents and near 3.70. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.45. KWZ is up 4 cents and near 4.75. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is marginally higher.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled up 58 yuan in soybeans, up 36 in Corn, up 77 in Soymeal, up 140 in Soyoil, and up 136 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 82 ringgit at 2,893 (basis November) tracking rival veg oils and concern over a slower than expected rise in output.

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the US Midwest see mostly dry weather to continue through the weekend.. Little to no rains are seen for most of region. Temps are seen running below average in most of the region. The 11 to 16 day outlook for the Midwest has below average rainfall and average to above average temps.

USDA estimated US 2020 corn crop down 378 mil bu from their August guess. This dropped US 2020/21 corn carryout down 283 mil bu and World end stocks down 11 mmt. US carryout of 2,503 mil bu is adequate for demand. Private analyst estimates of the carryout ranges from2, 100 to 2.765. Next CZ resistance is near2020 high near 3.94.

USDA estimated US 2020 soybean crop down 112mil bu from their August guess. This dropped US 2020/21 soybean carryout down 150 mil bu and World end stocks down 2 mmt. US carryout of 460 mil bu is adequate for demand. Next SX resistance is near 2018 high near 10.67

Most feel US wheat futures are overvalued. USDA left US 2020/21 wheat carryouyt near 925 mil bu but raised World wheat end stocks 3 mmt to a new record 319.3 mmt.  Key resistance is near 2020 high near 5.80.

On USDA Friday, Managed funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 11,000 Corn; bought 16,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 22,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 57,000 Corn; net long 195,000 Soybeans; net long 42,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 88,000 Soyoil.

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