Grains Could See Long Liquidation Before USDA Report

Morning Grains Outlook

Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 1 cent and near 10.01. SMZ is near 339.3. BOZ is near 32.65. CZ is down 2 cents and near 3.63. WZ is down 3 cents and near 5.40. KWZ is down 3 cents and near 4.72. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower.

Grains could be seeing some long liquidation before USDA Sep 30 stocks report and month end, talk China may soon be done buying US soybean and corn and concern about virus impact on global food and fuel demand. Increase US farmer cash selling s harvest advances could also weigh on futures and basis.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 7 yuan in soybeans, up 30 in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, up 70 in Soyoil, and up 72 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were unchanged at 2,822 (basis December) awaiting further input.

The 6 to 10 day forecast for the Midwest is cool and dry. 8-14 day is warm west and cool east and dry. The Southern Plains over the 6 to 10 day period sees little to no rainfall.

The Brazilian growing regions look to see moderate rainfall in central/east sections of the region over the next 6 to 10 days with little in the way of rainfall for the rest of the areas. The Argentine growing regions look to see light to moderate rainfall in the central sections of the region today with dry weather to be dominant for the rest of the week.

Ukraine will get enough rain in the coming week to ten days to support planting. Russia weather over the next ten days will be drier biased except near the Baltic States, Belarus and Ukraine borders where some rain is expected.

On Friday, Managed funds net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 2,000 Soybeans; bought 2,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 4,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 93,000 Corn; net long 196,000 Soybeans; net long 63,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 97,000 Soyoil.


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