MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SN is down 30 cents and near 14.77. SX is down 38 cents and near 14.01. SMN is near 378.8. BON is near 64.26. CN is down 1 cents and near 6.69. 7CZ is down 26 cents and near 5.83. WN is down 19 cents and near 6.61. KWN is down 20 cents and near 6.17. MWN is down 22 cents and near 7.42. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is unch. Gold is lower.
Pre overnight trade calls were higher. Grain futures are trading sharply lower. Tech speaking, SN below 15.00, CN testing key 6.60 support and BON below 67 cents is negative.
Grain futures testing strong seasonal that grains prices top in June, assuming normal summer weather 11-14 day US Midwest weather maps are mixed. EU dry. GFS wet. US Gulf tropical storm may be key.
GSI Commodity Index is near support. Higher energy prices offers support. US Dollar was higher. Some analyst are looking for US Q3 GDP to be near 6.5-7.0 pct. UK could slow reopening due to virus.
USDA June report failed to lower US 20/21 and 21/22 corn carryout enough to attract new buying. Most analyst have a lower Brazil corn crop and higher US corn exports for both 20/21 and 21/22. Most analyst did not drop US soybean crush and Census data suggest final US soybean exports up 45.
Range of analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout 850-1,040 vs USDA 1,107. Soya 55-137 vs USDA 135. Range of analyst est US 21/22 corn carryout 700-1,536 vs USDA 1,357. Soya 50-157 vs USDA 155.
Lack of new China buying US new crop corn and soybeans is offering resistance to futures and basis.
Most look for weekly US corn and soybean ratings to drop 3-5 pct. Crop stress noted in US NW Midwest. 31 pct of US Midwest is in drought stress. 64 pct Iowa and 83 pct Minnesota. Quick look and EC IL, WC IN, KY, TN and GA noted above average crop ratings.
On Friday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; 15,000 corn; 15,000 soybeans; 25,000 soyoil and bought 2,000 soymeal. We estimate Managed funds to be net short 7,000 SRW wheat long 292,000 corn, 147,000 soybeans, 9,000 soymeal and 82,000 soyoil.
Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.
ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.
A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.
© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.