Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed . SK is up 2 cents and near 14.10. SMK is near 418.9. BOK is near 50.28. CK is down 1 cent and near 5.34. WK is unchanged and near 6.55. KWK is up 3 censt and near 6.29. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and copper are lower.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 49 yuan in soybeans, down 17 in Corn, down 26 in Soymeal, up 124 in Soyoil, and up 54 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 47 ringgit at 3,725 (basis May) following rival oils.
Concerns of dryness remain for Argentina. GFS model run continued to show greater rain in the second week. Conditions in Brazil will be mostly favorable in the next two weeks; though, rain will be enough in some areas to lead to some additional fieldwork delays.
Most grain future rangebound waiting for more news on South America supplies and USDA report. Seasonally, corn and soybean exports switch to South America from US. US corn exports remain high. Brazil crop progress delayed with Covid cases rising, Argentina weather dry. US warmer and wet.
SK Range 13.50-14.50, SMK 410-430, BOK 48.60-51.00, CK 5.20-5.60 and WK 6.40-6.70. Weekly corn export sales 400-800 mt, soybeans 100-500 mt and wheat 100-500 mt.
Trade est US 2020/21 corn carryout at 1,470 mil bu, range 1,300-1,561 vs USDA 1,502
Trade est US 2020/21 soybean carryout at 117 mil bu, range 110-125 vs USDA 120
Trade est US 2020/21 wheat carryout at 839 mil bu, range 826-868 vs USDA 826
Trade est Brazil soybean crop near 133.1, range 132-134 mmt vs USDA 133
Trade est Argentina soybean crop near 47.4, range 46-48 mmt vs USDA 48
Trade est Brazil corn crop near 108.3, range 106-109.5 mmt vs USDA 109
Trade est Argentina corn crop near 47, range 45.5-48 mmt vs USDA 47.5
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net sellers of 8,000 SRW Wheat; net sold 22,000 contracts of Corn; sold 5,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 331,000 Corn; net long 165,000 Soybeans; net long 65,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 117,000 Soyoil.
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