Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to higher. SX is up 2 cents and near 12.76. SMZ is near 341.1. BOZ is near 55.89. CZ is up 4 cents and near 5.21. WZ is up 8 cents and near 6.98. KWZ is up 8 cents and near 6.99. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 8.96. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher.
US stocks, Crude and grains are higher on talk China has a plan to help Evengrande avoid collapse. Key US Fed meeting today with traders looking for timeline for US tapering and reduced bond buying.
Dalian futures reopened with soybean and corn higher, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil lower. There remains many questions on China food demand, hog herd and corn and soybean import needs.
Global ocean freight markets are making new highs. Grains positioning for USDA Sep 30 report. USDA est US Sep 1 corn stocks near 1,187, soybeans 175. Corn supply feels lower. Wheat guess 1,800.
US weather warm and dry. EU and Baltics dry. Ukraine, Brazil dry. Russia, Argentina getting rains
USDA Chief Economist optimistic about US domestic SBO biofuel demand and impact on soybean acres. US weekly ethanol report today with margins positive. Trade watching tomorrow weekly export sales.
There is increase in some Gulf elevators reopening soon. US old crop corn and soybean supply tight.
Brazil dry but rains forecast for next week Corn exports near 17-19 mmt vs USDA 22 and 35 last year. Argentina weather favorable for 2022 season. Argentina farmers not selling new crop corn or beans. US wheat prices not competitive for export demand. Prices need to compete for US 2022 acres.
US 2022 potash prices $650 vs 310 ly, DAP 775 vs 425, Ammonia 775 vs 440. Profit est favor bean acres.
Combinations of 18 year dry weather cycle and La Nina could suggest dry US spring and summer.
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