Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 11 cents and near 12.58. SMZ is near 320.7. BOZ is near 62.25. CZ is up 3 cents and near 5.37. WZ is unch and near 7.41. KWZ is up 2 cents and near 7.43. MWZ is unch and near 9.42. OZ is up 7 cents and near 6.30. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. GSI commodity index is higher and testing recent highs.
Dalian futures opened with soybeans up 4 pct, soyoil up 5 pct, rapeoil up 6 pct. Corn and meal lower. There are strong indications that China is back buying US soybeans. US soybean commit only 930 mil bu.
US west Midwest dry. US south Plains and Russia wheat areas dry. North plains rains. East Midwest wet.
Central Brazil is dry. Rains are coming. Late dryness reducing 1st corn crop acres add to 2nd crop. Argentina is dry and will be dry the next 10 days. Argentina talking banning new corn and wheat exports.
USDA, Brazil and Argentina closed Monday for holiday. US inspections, crop rating delayed until Tuesday. Some could see higher US soybean 2020 supplies, final US 2021 soybean crop and higher 2022 acres. Private estimates of US October US corn yield near 176.7. USDA 176.3. US harvest yields improving.
Matif/Canada rapeseed futures higher. EU rapeseed crushers downtime. Malaysian palmoil higher. Sask Canada canola harvest yield 21 bpa vs 34 average. 10.5 mmt crop vs 19.5 ly. No export supplies.
CZ in an uptrend since Sep 10 low. Still in a 5.26 to 5.48 range. Cash firm. Key now is demand. Higher 2022 US corn cost of production could reduce US 2022 corn acres vs soybeans and wheat.
Matif corn futures higher on slow EU harvest. Ukraine harvest slow. Crop 37 mmt vs USDA 39. Argentina corn plantings 21 pct vs 25 average. Weather still dry. Brazil sold out of corn.
USDA could estimate World wheat exporters stocks to use ratio record low. Matif wheat higher. Sask Canada wheat harvest yield 30 vs 36 average. Crop could be below 20 mmt vs USDA 23 and 35 ly.
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