Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SN is up 11 cents and near 15.81. SX is up 14 cents and near 14.23. SMN is near 429.9. BON is near 65.35. CN is up 7 cents and near 7.25. CZ is up 3 cents and near 6.29. WN is up 4 cents and near 7.57. KWN is up 4 cent and near 7.31. MWN is up 7 cents and near 7.97. New money may be coming into grain futures as China began negotiations of Phase 2 buying.
US stocks are higher before US April jobs data. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Copper is higher. Lumber again up the daily limit.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 23 cents; HRW up 28; HRS up 32; Corn is up 52 cents; Soybeans up 51 cents; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil up 295 points. Crushing margins are down 8 cents at $0.81 (July); Oil share up 1% at 43%.
Chinese Ag futures for (September) settled up 114 yuan in soybeans (at U.S. $25.60), up 41 in Corn (at $11.00), up 53 in Soymeal (at $522), up 128 in Soyoil (at 62.75 cents), and up 160 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 137 at 4,352 (basis July) at midsession, the biggest gains in 2 decades on supply worries.
US 7 day rains will be in S IA, IL,IN,OH and Delta. Showers could fall across W ND, W SD and KS. US 6-10 day suggest below normal temps normal rains. 8-14 cool/normal Midwest rains. Dry SW.
China grain and oilseed futures are sharply higher. Matif and Canada rapeseed are higher.
Brazil is dry. Informa est Brazil corn crop at 95 mmt vs USDA 109. Some now as low as 85.
Soybean futures finding support from talk of higher US crush demand/margins and higher soyoil prices. SX/CN ratio only 2.25. Suggesting soybean acres may not increase versus USDA March intentions.
May-April China soybean imports a record 104.5 mmt up 18 pct from last year. Argentina soybean harvest near 53 pct vs 78 ly. Crop est near 43 mmt, Corn harvest 23. Crop 46 mmt.
Trade est Canada wheat stocks near 16.7 mmt vs 18.8 ly. Canoal stocks 6.7 mmt vs 10.6 ly.
On Wednesday, Managed funds were net buyers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 10,000 in Corn; bought 15,000 Soybeans; net bought 13,000 Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 in Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 434,000 Corn; long 198,000 Soybeans; long 66,000 Soymeal, and; net long 110,000 Soyoil.
Deliveries were 9 Soymeal; 2 Soyoil; 72 Rice; ZERO Corn; 12 HRW Wheat; ZERO Oat; 132 Soybeans; ZERO SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
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