Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is up 4 cents and near 13.27. SX is up 3 cents and near 13.22. SMU is near 347.7. BOU is near 62.90. CU is down 1 cent and near 5.49. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.49. WU is up 2 cents and near 7.28. KWU is up 1 cent and near 7.08. MWU is down 2 cents and near 9.17.
US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Impact of global Delta virus spread?
MN, WI, NE IA, NW IL rains next 5 days. 8-14 Midwest weather; warm, dry west normal rains east.
Strong debate if USDA NASS est US corn yield at 181 like last August and soybean 53. Talk that US corn crop seeing rust, leaf blight on leaves and rootworms. Dry areas seeing leaves firing US east soybean pod count record high. Final yields there dependent on August rains.
Some China soybean crushers need soybeans. Looking for lower US prices, Brazil Oct. Brazil Jan/Feb. China needs corn. Could take more 21/22 imports than last year. Wheat sprout damage increase corn? Key to China corn and soybean import demand is size of current hog herd and will it expand
Brazil August soybean vessel line up 4.8 mmt. Shipped 5.8 ly. Corn line up 2.8 mmt vs 6.7 shipped ly. Egypt President calling for first increase in bread prices since 1977.
US wheat exports prices premium to World sellers. Lower spring crop, ensure domestic supply. US wheat prices may need to rally to increase 2022 acres. Strong competition with corn, SB, sorghum.
On Monday, Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; 14,000 soybeans; 4,000 soymeal, 5,000 soyoil, and 9,000 corn. We estimate Managed Money net long 10,000 SRW Wheat; long 234,000 Corn; net long 85,000 Soybeans; net long 15,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 61,000 lota of soyoil.
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