Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 1 cent and near 12.34. SMZ is near 322.1. BOZ is near 59.50. CZ is down 23cents and near 5.37. WZ is down 9 cents and near 7.47. KWZ is down 12 cents and near 7.42. MWZ is down 6 cents and near 9.24. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is and tested $78
USTR said US will have discussion with China on trade deal and tariffs on China imports to US. US stocks debating low rates, positive and supply chain problems, US Fed policy change, negative. Crude oil futures near key resistance. Higher demand? vs potential higher supply.
US Midwest dry. US south Plains and Russia wheat areas could see rain next week. Brazil rains.
Charts and numbers have turned negative soybean futures. SX lowest level since June 17. Some could see higher final US 2021 soybean crop and potential for higher 2022 acres. Some est China soybean imports 103 mmt vs 98 ly. US 30 vs 35, Brazil 65 vs 57. SMZ lowest levels since 0ctober, 2020. BOZ has rallied from 54.18 to 59.50. 60.00 resistance.
CZ in an uptrend since Sep 10 low. Still in a 5.26 to 5.48 range. Harvest limits new futures buying. Some estimate US corn yield near 173, exports 2,600 and 21/22 carryout 1,100 vs USDA 1,408. Still, some now est China corn imports near 27 mmt vs 31 ly. US 14 vs 22. Ukraine 12 vs 8. US corn harvest 29 pct. Yields lower. Soybean harvest 34. Yields higher. Soybeans only 9 pct moisture.
USDA left corn rating at 59 pct G/E. Small gains in IN,IA,KY,OH vs small drop in IL,MI,MO,NE and WI. USDA left soybean rating at 58 pct G/E. Small gains in IN,IA,NE,OH vs small drop in AR,MS,MO, and WI.
There is rain forecasted for US and Russia winter wheat areas. WZ overbought. Could see correction. USDA est US winter wheat planting 47 pct. KS 42, OK 37, AR 10, MO 6, OH 25, WA 77, OR 19. USDA could estimate World exporters stocks to use ratio record low in October.
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