Global Ag News June 28

TODAY —- EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS

Wheat prices overnight are up 8 1/4 in SRW, up 11 1/4 in HRW, up 15 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 2 3/4; Soybeans up 15 1/2; Soymeal up $0.24; Soyoil up 1.15.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 16 in SRW, up 11 in HRW, up 56 in HRS; Corn is down 35; Soybeans down 34; Soymeal down $1.76; Soyoil up 0.47.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 18 1/4 in SRW, down 1/4 in HRW, up 90 in HRS; Corn is down 23 1/2; Soybeans down 87 1/2; Soymeal down $36.20; Soyoil down 0.40.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans down 43 yuan ; Soymeal up 30; Soyoil down 36; Palm oil down 2; Corn up 5 — Malasyian Palm is down 12. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 12 ringgit (-0.34%) at 3508 swinging between gains and losses as investors weighed the tropical oil’s supply-demand outlook and fluctuations in rival soybean oil prices.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Scattered showers through Tuesday, south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday. East: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers east Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated showers Monday-Wednesday. Temperatures near to below Saturday, near to below normal south and above normal north Sunday-Monday, near to above normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

The player sheet for 6/25 had funds: net sellers of 8,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, sellers of 20,000 corn, sellers of 16,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and  sellers of 15,000 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 25 were: SRW Wheat down 5,878 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,671, Corn down 35,664, Soybeans down 40,671, Soymeal down 4,953, Soyoil down 5,228.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 718 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYMEAL SALE: Exporters sold 112,200 tonnes of U.S. soymeal to Mexico, of which 84,150 tonnes is for 2021/2022 delivery and 28,050 tonnes is for 2022/2023, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
• WHEAT TENDER: Taiwan bought 55,000 tonnes wheat of U.S.-origin in tender

PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of red milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued a tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of wheat, with a bidding deadline of July 6
• WHEAT TENDER: The Ethiopian government issued an international tender to buy about 400,000 tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat

CROP SURVEY: Analysts See More Canadian Canola Planted in 2021

Canola planting in Canada seen 900,000 acres above the previous est., according to a Bloomberg survey of six analysts.

• Canola area seen at 22.4m acres, Statistics Canada estimated 21.5m acres in April
• Wheat planting seen at 23.5m acres, 300,000 acres above the April est.
• Statistics Canada in Ottawa is scheduled to release its latest estimates on June 29 at 8:30am ET

Soy Oil, Ethanol Credits Drop as Refiners Win U.S. Biofuel Case

• U.S. Supreme Court backs fossil fuel industry in key ruling
• Ethanol credits plummet as much as 27% after decisionBy Kim Chipman and Michael Hirtzer

Soybean-oil and ethanol-credit prices plummeted after the U.S. Supreme Court handed oil refineries a victory in a closely watched case on national biofuel policy.

Soy oil, a common ingredient in biomass-based diesel, fell almost 6% before paring some of the loss. Corn used to make ethanol declined as much as 3% and credits tracking compliance with the blending law, known as RINs, plunged as much as 27%. Shares of top biofuel producers including Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. and Renewable Energy Group Inc. also declined

The high court ruled that the Environmental Protection Agency has wide latitude to exempt refiners from federal requirements that they mix renewable fuels into gasoline and diesel, a triumph for oil companies long seeking a break from the law. The decision is sure to intensify tensions between farm economy interests and big oil producing states, with potentially far-reaching repercussions for both industry and electoral politics.

Russian Wheat Exports Rise 12% So Far This Season: Agency

Wheat shipments for the current season totaled 38.5m tons as of June 24, the Federal Center of Quality and Safety Assurance for Grain and Grain Products said on its website, citing inspections before exports.

• Wheat exports totaled about 500k tons in week to June 24, compared with about 700k tons a week before
• Exports of all grains are at 49.2m tons so far this season; no comparative data given for the year-earlier period

Strategie Grains raises EU rapeseed crop outlook

Consultancy Strategie Grains has raised its forecast for this year’s European Union rapeseed harvest while trimming demand expectations, projecting reduced supply tightness next season.

Rapeseed production in the 27-country EU is now expected to reach 17 million tonnes, compared with the 16.82 million tonnes forecast a month ago and 3.3% above last year’s crop, Strategie Grains said in an oilseed report. The upward revision was mainly because of Romanian output, the consultancy said.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: Prices drop to the lowest level in the year

Soybean prices have dropped to the lowest nominal level of the year in Brazil, largely pressed by the dollar depreciation and the lack of compensation through export premiums. The recent price swings abroad also influenced devaluations in the Brazilian market.

Between June 17 and 24, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) dropped by 4.8%, closing at 149.28 BRL (30.43 USD)/60-kilo bag on Thursday, 24, the lowest nominal level since December 11, 2020. Considering the monthly averages in May and in June (until June 24), this Index has decreased by 2%. On the other hand, in the annual comparison, the Index has increased by a staggering 57.5%, in nominal terms.

Another factor that is influencing soybean prices in Brazil is the devaluation of the by-products, which leads agents from processors to put pressure on the purchasing prices for the raw material. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, prices for soybean meal dropped by 2% in the last seven days – in some regions, the current price levels are the lowest since September/20. The monthly average in June is currently 5.9% lower than that in May, but 34.6% higher than that in June/20, in nominal terms.

For soy oil (delivered to São Paulo with 12% ICMS), prices decreased by 3.7% in the last seven days and 7.1% in the monthly comparison. In the annual comparison, however, values have increased by 86.8%.

CORN/CEPEA: With disinterested purchasers, Index crops by 14% in June

With purchasers away from the spot market, corn prices continue to fade in most Brazilian regions. These agents have been postponing new acquisitions, expecting new devaluations as the harvesting moves forward. The recent dollar depreciations and price drops at ports influenced corn devaluations in the interior of the country too.

Between June 17 and 24, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas, SP) dropped by 3.7% and in the month, by 13.8%, closing at 86.25 BRL (17.58 USD)/bag on Thursday, June 24, therefore returning to the nominal levels from early March.

At the port of Paranaguá (PR), values decreased by 8.7%. Thus, in some period of the current month, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index was more than 10 Reais/bag higher than the average at the port of Paraná, which increases supply in the domestic market.

As for sellers, those who do not need cash flow try not to close deals at the moment. In this case, these agents are waiting for prices to rise, based on the possible decrease in the productivity of crops because of the sowing delay and low rainfall. Corn farmers from southern Brazil are also keeping an eye on the forecast for a new cold front in the region in the coming days. At B3, contracts devalued too, but not as sharply as the price drops in the spot market.

CROPS – The dry weather continues favorable to the harvesting. According to Imea, until June 21, 3.91% of the area estimated for Mato Grosso had been harvested. In Paraná, 1% of the area had been harvested. In Mato Grosso do Sul, low rainfall influenced a reduction in the production estimates for the 2020/21 season, to 8.25 million tons, 22.3% down from that in the 2019/20 season.

Argentina Soy Crush From 2021 Crop Seen at 41m Tons, Up 7.9% Y/y

Crushers will increase production from the crop just harvested versus last season’s 38m metric tons, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says in an emailed report.

• Farmers had sold 52% of the harvest through June 16
• Exports of all soy products from the 2021 crop seen at $22.2b, up 38% from last season’s $16b
• Government tax revenue from soy seen at $8.6b, up 38% from last season’s $6.2b

China to Start Buying Pork for Reserves Amid Falling Prices

Chinese central and local governments will buy pork for stockpiles after price falls to a warning level, according to a statement from National Development and Reform Commission.

• Average hog-to-grain ratio in June 21-25 has fallen to 4.9:1, breaking the official top-level warning threshold of 5:1

 China state planner launches investigation into fertilizer market

China’s state planner said on Monday it was launching an investigation into the urea market, after prices of the fertilizer have surged.

The probe is the latest action taken by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) to cool price gains for major raw materials.

The NDRC recently sent a team to the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange as well as some urea production and distribution companies and retailers to learn more about the supply and demand of urea and prices, it said in a statement on its official WeChat account.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 18% Above Normal as of June 27

India has so far received 168.9 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 143.3 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Jun 27.

• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 37% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 2% above normal rains
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

U.S. Pork Production Falls 3% This Week, Beef Down: USDA

U.S. federally inspected pork production falls to 507m pounds for the week ending June 26 from 523m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Hog slaughter falls 2.8% in the week to 2.368m head
• Beef production down 0.5% from a week ago to 540m pounds
• For the year, beef production is 6.1% above last year’s level at this time, while pork is 1.4% above