Global Ag News June 21

TODAY – EXPORT INSPECTIONS, CROP PROGRESS, COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS

Wheat prices overnight are down 7 in SRW, down 7 in HRW, down 5 in HRS; Corn is down 14 1/2; Soybeans down 24; Soymeal down $0.55; Soyoil down 0.89.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 20 in SRW, down 27 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/4 in HRS; Corn is down 29 1/2; Soybeans down 106 1/4; Soymeal down $1.13; Soyoil down 6.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 8 1/2 in SRW, down 11 3/4 in HRW, up 27 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 6 1/4; Soybeans down 83 3/4; Soymeal down $19.90; Soyoil down 3.67.

Chinese Ag futures (SEP 21) Soybeans up 35 yuan ; Soymeal up 16; Soyoil up 48; Palm oil up 62; Corn down 29 — Malasyian Palm is down 45. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 45 ringgit (-1.31%) at 3379 on a rising production outlook and concerns that Indonesia’s plan to change its levy will hurt Malaysian exports.

The player sheet for 6/18 had funds: net buyers of 11,500 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 17,500 corn, buyers of 17,500 soybeans, buyers of 6,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 6,500 soyoil.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of June 18 were: SRW Wheat down 2,551 contracts, HRW Wheat down 3,086, Corn down 5,282, Soybeans down 15,302, Soymeal down 3,945, Soyoil down 2,028.

There were changes in registrations (-100 Soyoil). Registration total: 20 SRW Wheat contracts; 16 Oats; 0 Corn; 13 Soybeans; 768 Soyoil; 442 Soymeal; 1,249 HRW Wheat.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALE: Chinese state-owned importers bought at least eight cargo shipments of U.S. soybeans on Friday, or at least 480,000 tonnes, the country’s largest U.S. soybean purchases in 4-1/2 months
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Major Feedmill Group (MFG) purchased an estimated 136,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in a deal on Friday.
• CORN SALE: South Korea’s Feed Leaders Committee (FLC) purchased about 65,000 tonnes of animal feed corn to be sourced from any worldwide origins in an international tender which closed on Friday
• CORN SALE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased an estimated 60,000 tonnes of corn to be sourced from optional origins in a deal on Friday.
• WHEAT SALE: Iranian state agency the Government Trading Corporation (GTC) is believed to have purchased at least 195,000 tonnes of milling wheat in a tender for 60,000 tonnes which closed on Wednesday.
• WHEAT SALE: Importers in the Philippines are believed to have bought about 150,000 tonnes of wheat in a tender this week.

 PENDING TENDERS

• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer issued international tenders to buy a total 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: Turkey’s state grain board TMO has issued an international tender to purchase a total of about 395,000 tonnes of red milling wheat
• SOYOIL TENDER: Egypt’s GASC is seeking at least 30,000 tons of soybean oil.

 Chinese Corn Imports From U.S. Surge to Record in May

China imported 1.89 million tons of corn from the U.S. in May, the highest amount in data going back to 2009, according to customs data released Monday.

• Imports rose from 1.3m tons in April
• Shipments from Ukraine were 1.26m tons, the highest since January

SOY

• Soybean imports from U.S. fell to 244k tons in May, the lowest since August and down from 2.2m tons in April, the customs data showed
• Purchases from Brazil jumped to 9.2m tons in May from 5.1m tons in April; that’s highest since June 2020 and compares with 8.9m tons a year earlier

PORK

• China imported 41k tons of U.S. pork in May, down from 43.2k tons in April and 78.9k tons a year earlier
• NOTE: China’s pork imports slumped in May to their lowest since February. Domestic prices have dropped to near a two-year low as China rebuilds its herd following an outbreak of African swine fever

CORN/CEPEA: Purchasers leave the market, and liquidity is low in Brazil

Corn sales have been low in Brazil concerning both the spot market and term contracts. This scenario reflects the lower interest of purchasers, who expect prices to decrease even more, based on the nearness of the harvesting and on devaluations at Brazilian ports – which, in turn, reduce the interest of sellers in exporting the cereal.

As regards farmers, although many of them do not need to sell corn to make cash flow, they fear steeper devaluations. Thus, these agents are trying to sell the remaining corn from the 2020/21 season or from the summer crop, however, the gap between asking and bidding prices is limiting deals.

With supply higher than demand, prices dropped more sharply in the producing regions from Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Paraná States. In Santa Catarina, prices increased in some consuming regions, boosted by low inventories.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: With international devaluations and dollar depreciation, Index PR drops by almost 18 Reais/bag

Soybean prices have decreased sharply this week in both the Brazilian and the international markets – in Brazil, values returned to the nominal levels from January. Pressure came from the favorable weather to soybean crops in the United States, the recent improvement in the conditions of American crops and speculation indicating lower demand for soybean from China, which has inventories enough for the long term.

Besides, a possible change in the biodiesel policy in the USA increased pressure on values, since this change may lower the demand for soy oil for the production of the fuel. In Brazil, the dollar depreciation against the Real helps to press down soybean prices – on Thursday, June 17, the American currency closed at 5.024 BRL, the lowest level since June 10, 2020. This morning, the dollar dropped to 4.983 BRL.

In that scenario, between June 10 and 17, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index Paranaguá (PR) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index Paraná decreased by a steep 8.1% (12.55 Reais/bag) and 10.8% (17.85 Reais/bag), respectively, to 156.86 BRL (31.22 USD)/60-kilo bag and 148.09 BRL (29.48 USD)/bag on Thursday, 17. Both are the lowest since January 4, 2021.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, the prices paid to soybean farmers (over-the-counter market) in Brazil dropped by 7.6% between June 10 and 17; in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased by 8.9%.

Ukraine rapeseed-2021 export prices 10% down over the week – APK-Inform

Ukrainian export prices for rapeseed of 2021 harvest have fallen by around 10% over the past week due to global downward trend and improving weather conditions in main production regions, APK-Inform consultancy said on Friday.

Ukraine starts 2021 grain harvest

Ukraine, a global major agricultural exporter, has started the 2021 grain harvest, sending the first cars with grain to Black Sea ports for future export, the Ukrainian Nika-Tera sea port said on Friday.

• Ukraine’s southern regions traditionally starts the harvest in the first half of June.
• The agriculture ministry said on Friday the country had completed the 2021 grain sowing.
• Favourable weather could help Ukraine to harvest at least 75 million tonnes of grain this year, versus 65 million tonnes in 2020, the ministry has said.

Indonesia to Issue Revised Palm Oil Levy Rules Soon, Lutfi Says

Indonesia is preparing to issue new regulations in the coming days that will revise the palm oil exports levy in a bid to boost shipments of the commodity, Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi says in interview with Bloomberg TV’s Haslinda Amin and Yvonne Man.

• Sees export volumes of CPO and its derivatives increase by 9%-10% in 2021
• Lutfi sees biggest trade risk this year is vaccination progress in Indonesia and its key trading partners
  • Indonesia could inoculate about 30% of its population before end-Aug. and reach herd immunity before end-1Q 2022
• Indonesia will not import rice this year due to good harvest during March-May
• Indonesia could import the same amount of sugar this year from last year, and increase it by close to 3% in 2022

EU wheat export outlook promising as harvest, Russia eyed

French sales to China, a big expected Romanian crop and competitive prices for German and Baltic supplies should yield brisk EU wheat shipments at the start of next season while an export levy clouds Russian prospects, analysts and traders said.

Competitive prices are helping early EU export sales for the new season that begins in July, particularly as a variable export tax in Russia complicates pricing of what is also expected to be a large Russian harvest.

Vegetable oil prices showing declining trend: Centre

After cooking oil prices hit record highs last month in India, the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution on Wednesday informed that edible oil prices in India are showing a declining trend across a wide array of oils.

• As per the data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, over the past month, the prices of edible oils are now coming down. In some cases, the decline is by as much as nearly 20 per cent, as shown in prices in Mumbai.
• The price of palm oil was Rs.142 per kilogram (kg) on May 7, now it came down to Rs.115 per kg, a drop of 19 per cent.
• The price of sunflower oil was Rs.188 per kg on May 5, while now it came down to Rs.157 per kg, a drop of 16 per cent.

Palm oil options trading launched in China, open to overseas investors

China on Friday started the trading of palm oil options at the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) and allowed overseas investors to participate, marking another step in the country’s financial opening-up push. The move made palm oil options the first yuan-denominated options contracts listed in China open to overseas investors, the DCE said.

Malaysia’s June 1-20 Palm Oil Exports 937,135 Tons: AmSpec

Shipments fall 1.8% m/m from 953,860 tons exported during May 1-20, according to AmSpec Agri on Monday.

Malaysia June 1-20 Palm Oil Exports -0.81% M/m: Intertek

Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell 0.81% m/m during June 1-20, according to Intertek Testing Services.

China to provide wider farm insurance coverage

A State Council executive meeting Friday decided to provide wider farm insurance to help farmers fend off risks and stabilize income from grain production.

The meeting was presided over by Premier Li Keqiang and said 500 counties in 13 major grain production provinces would have insurance for planting rice and wheat. It will cover costs for seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, land, labor, and losses from natural disasters, plant diseases, and insect pests, among others. The insurance for those planting corn will cover losses due to price and output fluctuations.

The meeting decided to provide a one-time subsidy to farmers growing major grains to cushion them from sharp price increases of farming supplies and stabilize their income. The total subsidy amount will be around 20 billion yuan (about 3.11 billion U.S. dollars).

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 41% Above Normal as of June 20

India has so far received 133 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 94.3 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on June 20.

• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 83% above normal
• The eastern and northeastern region got 12% above normal rains
• Cumulative seasonal rainfall data is compiled by the IMD

Canada and Corteva Join Forces to Boost Protein in Canola

National Research Council of Canada and Corteva Agriscience are researching ways to increase quality and quantity of protein in canola as global demand for high-protein plant sources grows, the government says Friday.

• Project aims to develop canola varieties that also reduce fiber and increase energy content in seed and meal, federal government statement says
• This is the first commercial breeding project that focuses on protein quality
  • Aim to create new markets and increase exports for canola

 Oil Refiners Warn of Record Biofuel Costs in Push for Relief

The nation’s top refining trade group warns that the cost of complying with a federal mandate to blend biofuels into gasoline and diesel is skyrocketing and could reach $30.5 billion in 2021, as industry advocates petition the Biden administration to lower annual quotas.

• The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers based its analysis largely on recent record-high prices for tradeable credits known as Renewable Identification Numbers that track biodiesel and ethanol blending and are used by refiners to prove they have complied with annual biofuel quotas
• On a per-gallon basis, RFS compliance could add as much as 23 cents to the cost of wholesale fuel production, AFPM says
• “President Biden and EPA Administrator Regan should see these numbers and take swift acton to right-size RIN prices,” AFPM senior vice president Derrick Morgan tells reporters on a conference call
  • “Uncertainty around the RFS program and fear of the prospect of RINs running out is driving much of the chaos in the RIN market”
• Renewable fuel advocates stress that production of ethanol and biodiesel — and RIN generation — will climb this and next year as the nation recovers from the pandemic
  • They argue that the response to high credit prices should be more biofuel blending and RIN generation — not government-lowered quotas

 About 10% of Chinese Hog Farmers Suffer Losses on Price Slump

About 10% of domestic hog breeders are suffering losses amid a slump in pork prices, and pig farmers are being urged to reduce the number of breeding sows that are low in productivity, according to the China Animal Agriculture Association.

• Hog breeders should also keep their herd at a reasonable level, the association said in an open letter to hog farms posted on its official Wechat account; sow herds that were previously destined for meat instead of breeding should be eliminated
• The slump in domestic pork prices is due to a sustained, fast recovery in hog herds, which have improved supplies significantly
  • Pork demand is also at a seasonal low in part because of an aging population and change in dietary habits, which have reduced pork consumption
• Some farms have been fattening pigs already mature for slaughter in the spring, and the normal pace of slaughtering has been interrupted
  • Farms have been competing with slaughtering houses to buy mature pigs for fattening
  • NOTE: Obese Pigs in China Are Fueling Relentless Pork Price Slump

U.S. Beef Production Falls 0.5% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

U.S. federally inspected beef production falls to 543m pounds for the week ending June 19 from 546m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 0.3% from a week ago to 663m head
• Pork production up 0.2% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.1%