Global Ag News Headlines

by ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 1; HRS Wheat down 1, Corn is up 3 cents; Soybeans up 3, Soymeal up $0.50, and Soyoil up 15 points.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices were up roughly 30 cents; HRW down 24; HRS down 25; Corn was down 8 cents; Soybeans down 23 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 95 points; Crushing margins were down 10 cents; Oilshare unchanged.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 5 yuan in Soybeans, down 6 in Corn, down 15 in Soymeal, down 62 in Soyoil, and down 48 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 33 ringgit at 2,237 (basis June) at midsession mixed between bargain hunting and worries over slow exports.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Two to three significant rain events will impact the Delta and southeastern states in the next two weeks that will delay fieldwork and cause some areas of flooding

—the first one will occur Sunday and will involve severe thunderstorms as well

—the second rain event is likely Wednesday through next Thursday and may also involve severe thunderstorms

—the third rain event is possible Apr. 26 – 28; the rain events Wednesday through next Thursday and Apr. 26 – 28 would also likely involve the southern Corn Belt to some extent

South America Weather Forecast

—Conditions in much of Argentina and northern Brazil will still be favorable for fieldwork and crop production

— There will be pockets that get too dry in southern Brazil with some increase of crop stress

—Southern Brazil likely will not get much rain through at least Apr. 26, especially from Rio Grande do Sul into central Sao Paulo and central Mato Grosso do Sul

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 11,000 Corn; net sold 5,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 2,000 Soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 19,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 119,000 Corn; net long 12,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 24,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 3,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 6,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 3,000; Corn down 130; Soybeans up 7,800 contracts; Soymeal down 1,000 lots, and; Soyoil up 7,900.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 451; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.

TODAY—COMITTMENT OF TRADERS REPORT— 

Tender Activity—Taiwan seeks 220,000t U.S. wheat—

News wire was claiming China dropped an enormous bomb on the U.S. soybean market in 2018 when it all but shunned the American oilseed at the start of the trade war, creating an unprecedented demand shock; unfortunately, the corn market is getting a taste of that torture now as the abrupt collapse in world oil demand has led to previously unimaginable cuts in U.S. ethanol production

—ethanol production has been a vital source of demand for U.S. corn ever since the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) came about in 2005, which mandated the use of renewable fuels in transportation fuel

—almost 40% of yearly corn use in the United States is devoted to ethanol under normal circumstances

—feed and residual use also typically account for nearly 40% of annual U.S. corn consumption, while exports take up only about 15%

China’s pork output in the first quarter fell 29.1% from a year ago to 10.38 million tons, official data showed on Friday, as the world’s biggest producer continues to feel the impact of the African swine fever that decimated its hog herd; China’s pork output hit a 16-year low of 42.6 million tons in 2019 after African swine fever, deadly to almost all pigs but not harmful to people, killed millions of hogs; some experts estimate China’s sow herd shrank by at least 60% last year after the disease spread throughout the country, largely unreported, since 2018.

The condition of French soft wheatdeclined last week, data from farm office FranceAgriMer showed on Friday, hit by continuing dry weather in the European Union’s biggest grain producer

—For soft wheat, France’s largest cereal crop, 60% was rated good or excellent by April 13, FranceAgriMer said in a weekly report. That compared with 61% the previous week and 81% a year earlier.

Germany’s 2020 wheat crop will fall 1.4% on the year to 22.73 million tons, the country’s association of farm cooperatives said in its second harvest estimate; this was down only slightly from 22.79 million tons in the first forecast in March; the association forecast Germany’s 2020 winter rapeseed crop will rise 18.4% from last summer’s especially poor crop to 3.34 million tons; this was down from 3.44 million tons in the first estimate partly because rapeseed suffered from late winter frosts in some areas.

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.