Global Ag News Headlines Apr 29

by ADMIS Research Team

Overnight trade has SRW down roughly 6 cents, HRW steady; HRS Wheat down 3, Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans unchanged, Soymeal unchanged, and Soyoil up 5 points.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 1 yuan in Soybeans, down 4 in Corn, down 27 in Soymeal, up 18 in Soyoil, and up 36 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 16 ringgit at 2,336 (basis July) at midsession recovering from recent losses, following other oils.

U.S. Weather Forecast

A weather disturbance is likely to promote moderate to heavy rain in the southwestern part and some central areas of the Northern Plains involving Montana, South Dakota, and central and southwestern North Dakota Sunday through Monday; enough precipitation may occur to temporarily promote greater planting delays

The Midwest forecast looks to be in a pattern of below normal temps and normal to below normal precip

South America Weather Forecast

Last night’s GFS model run still showed no significant change with the meaningful rain event suggested for Brazil’s second season corn and cotton production areas

Black Sea/Europe region

Forecasts suggest most of Europe and the western CIS will get rain at one time or another over the next ten days to two weeks; the precipitation will be erratically distributed with some areas getting more rain than others; all of the region will get precipitation at one time or another and it will benefit winter and spring crops; there is not likely to be much precipitation of significance in Russia’s Southern Region

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 5,000 Corn; net sold 4,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 3,000 Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 181,000 Corn; net short 10,000 in Soybeans; net short 10,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 13,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,100 contracts; HRW Wheat down 2,000; Corn down 30,000; Soybeans down 10,000 contracts; Soymeal up 2,200 lots, and; Soyoil up 2,400.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 11 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 3; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 2,668 lots; Soymeal 564; Rice 267; HRW Wheat 10, and; HRS Wheat 821 contracts.

TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—- 

Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 400,000t optional-origin wheat—Taiwan bought 65,000t Brazilian corn–

U.S. farmers have gotten a solid start on their corn and soybean planting efforts this spring after making impressive progress last week, which is much welcomed after last year’s historic difficulties; the window of opportunity for planting will not be completely wide open this week as rain will be a nuisance in Illinois and the eastern areas, but even an on-time planted crop is very much in the running for a record yield.

Extensive Wheat Freeze Damage Reported in the Southern Plains; damage to millions of acres of winter wheat is becoming visible after temperatures plunged below freezing for several consecutive nights in mid-April; some guess are well over 50% of the state’s wheat was affected; Southern Plains growers face tough decisions about the future of damaged fields, and weather is unlikely to be an ally in the weeks to come; indications for May are for the warm and dry pattern to continue — above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation

CME: Resetting Price Limits for Grain, Oilseed, Lumber Futures

  • SAYS RESETTING PRICE LIMITS FOR GRAIN, OILSEED AND LUMBER FUTURES EFFECTIVE APRIL 30 FOR TRADE DATE MAY 1
  • SAYS THE NEW FUTURES PRICE LIMITS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE FIRST TRADING DAY IN NOVEMBER 2020
  • SAYS ALL MINI-SIZED GRAIN AND OILSEED FUTURES WILL HAVE THE SAME DAILY PRICE LIMITS AS THEIR CORRESPONDING STANDARD-SIZED FUTURES
  • SAYS ALL HALF MONTH FUTURES WILL HAVE THE SAME DAILY PRICE LIMITS AS THEIR CORRESPONDING STANDARD FUTURES

President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered meat-processing plants to stay open to protect the food supply in the United States, despite concerns about coronavirus outbreaks, drawing a backlash from unions that said at-risk workers required more protection; with concerns about food shortages and supply chain disruptions, Trump issued an executive order using the Defense Production Act to mandate that the plants continue to function.

—The largest U.S. meatpacking union said on Tuesday the Trump administration should immediately compel meat companies to provide “the highest level of protective equipment” to slaughterhouse workers and ensure daily coronavirus testing

—The meat and poultry industry praised President Trump on Tuesday evening after he signed an executive order using the Defense Production Act (DPA) to order food processing plants to stay open; the National Chicken Council (NCC), which represents about 95 percent of the chicken produced in the U.S., including Tyson Foods, Perdue and Sanderson Farms, said the industry was “grateful” for Trump for making the decision

—The National Corn Growers Association issued the following news; despite the current challenges due to COVID-19, U.S. pork and beef exports are on a record pace through February; the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) recently released the data, which showed U.S. pork exports posting the third-largest month on record and U.S. beef exports experiencing double-digit gains, year-over-year; February pork exports were up 46 percent from a year ago, and U.S. beef exports were up 18 percent from a year ago; even as COVID-19 disrupted export markets, demand for U.S. red meats remained strong

Pork prices in China continued to edge down last week as supply increased and demand softened, official data showed; from April 20 to 24, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs came in at 43.01 yuan (6 U.S. dollars) per kg, down 0.8 percent week on week

—China has released another 7,942.21 tons of frozen pork from its central reserves to increase market supply and stabilize pork prices; China has finished 12 batches of pork release after the Lunar New Year holiday

Argentine farmers have suspended soy and corn harvesting in the country’s central grains belt due to heavy rains, while the extra moisture was expected to help wheat planting scheduled to start in May, growers and analysts said

—Harvesting had benefited from a month of sunny weather that allowed farmers to bring in more than half the 2019/20 soy crop and a third of the season’s corn before unusually harsh storms started pelting the Pampas grains belt over the weekend.

—Argentina farmers are expected to sow 6.7 million hectares with 2020/21 wheat, starting in the coming weeks, compared with 6.6 million hectares planted with the grain in the 2019/20 crop year, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said

—The exchange forecasts 49.5 million tons of soy to be harvested this year and 50 million tons of corn

European wheat prices fell on Tuesday as rain in Europe and the Black Sea region after several weeks of dry weather eased concerns about dryness causing damage to new crops; benchmark new crop December milling wheat on the Paris-based Euronext exchange settled down 0.6% at 187.75 euros ($203.3) a ton. 

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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.