Global Ag News for Sept 25.23

TOP HEADLINES

India Sees No Wheat Shortage, May Sell More to Control Prices

The government may sell more wheat from the state reserves in the local market to control prices, Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra said in New Delhi on Monday.

• The country has no shortage of wheat and all options are open to keep prices under control, he said at the annual meeting of Indian flour millers
• NOTE: In August, Chopra said that the nation was considering to cut or scrap a 40% duty on wheat imports
• NOTE: India’s has curbed exports of the grain to manage food inflation, which rose 9.9% from a year earlier

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/4 in SRW, down 3 in HRW, down 2 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 1 3/4; Soybeans down 4; Soymeal up $0.50; Soyoil down 0.42.

Markets finished last week with wheat prices down 13 in SRW, down 27 in HRW, down 9 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 4; Soybeans down 24 1/2; Soymeal down $1.60; Soyoil down 1.75.

For the month to date wheat prices are down 23 3/4 in SRW, down 19 in HRW, up 1 in HRS; Corn is down 2 3/4; Soybeans down 76 1/2; Soymeal down $17.70; Soyoil down 3.28.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 27.0% in SRW, down 20.3% in HRW, down 18.2% in HRS; Corn is down 29.9%; Soybeans down 14.9%; Soymeal down 18.7%; Soyoil down 5.4%.

Chinese Ag futures (NOV 23) Soybeans down 17 yuan; Soymeal up 3; Soyoil up 70; Palm oil up 42; Corn down 13 — Malaysian Palm is up 23. Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 23 ringgit (+0.62%) at 3704.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 741 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 24 Soymeal; 402 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 22 were: SRW Wheat up 2,523 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,261, Corn up 7,221, Soybeans down 1,771, Soymeal up 2,770, Soyoil down 5,542.

Northern Plains: A system brought widespread moderate to heavy showers through the region this weekend. Most of this week will be dry, but another front will move in late this week with scattered showers through the weekend and into next week. Recent and forecast rainfall may help the remaining areas of immature corn and soybeans, but is hampering the early harvest progress.

Central/Southern Plains: Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved through over the weekend, being heavy in some areas to the north and east, which likely delayed harvest to some degree. Drier weather should be in place most of the week, offering better conditions for harvest and winter wheat planting. Showers may start developing late this week and especially this weekend with a trough digging into the West. Showers would benefit winter wheat establishment, but soil moisture is still above-normal and showers are not critically important just yet.

Midwest: A system moving in created waves of showers and thunderstorms for the western half of the region over the weekend, being heavy in a lot of areas, which will help somewhat with the drought situation and limiting the fall of water levels on the river systems. The system will continue to slowly move through the region this week, with some more limited areas of showers moving through. With how dry soils have been, any delays to harvest will likely be short. Drier weather should develop by the end of the week and temperatures will continue to be above normal into next week, helping crops to mature.

Delta: Isolated showers moved through this weekend, but most areas stayed dry. Drier weather will continue, forcing crops to maturity and favoring harvest.

Brazil: A front in the south produced scattered showers this weekend and will continue there for the next couple of days. The front will be forced into central Brazil later this week and stall there, producing areas of showers that should be the start of the wet season, which would be on time. Planting conditions are very good outside of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, which has had issues with flooding.

Argentina: A front across the north produced some showers over the weekend and will continue to do so early this week before it lifts north. Southern areas also saw a little rain this weekend and a little more is expected early this week. An overall drier pattern this week should promote planting, but soils are still in need of moisture coming off of last year’s historic drought. El Nino favors the country with better rainfall during the season, however.

The player sheet for Sept. 22 had funds: net buyers of 2,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 1,500 corn, buyers of 1,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,000 soymeal, and  buyers of 3,000 soyoil.

TENDERS

• WHEAT PURCHASE: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 93,125 metric tons of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased an estimated 65,000 metric tons of animal feed corn in an international tender.
• SUNFLOWER OIL PURCHASE: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), said it bought 63,000 metric tons of sunflower oil in an international tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN AND SOYMEAL TENDER: Iranian state-owned animal feed importer SLAL has issued international tenders to purchase up to 180,000 tonnes of animal feed corn and 120,000 tons of soymeal
• RICE TENDER: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 21,700 metric tonnes of rice all to be sourced from China.

TODAY

Ukraine’s September grain exports down 51%, ministry says

Ukrainian grain exports over Sept. 1-24 totalled 1.57 million metric tons, down sharply from the 3.21 million tons in the corresponding period last year, agriculture ministry data showed on Monday.

The ministry gave no explanation for the decline.

Traders and agricultural unions have said that Ukrainian the blocking of Black Sea ports and recent Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Danube River are the main reasons for the reduced exports.

The ministry data showed that Ukraine has exported a total of 6.2 million tons of grain so far in the 2023/24 July-June season, versus 7.5 million tons in the same period of the previous season.

The volume included almost 3 million tons of wheat, 2.5 million tons of corn and 599,000 tons of barley.

Ukraine has traditionally shipped most of its exports through its deep-water Black Sea ports.

An agreement brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to allow such exports collapsed in July when Russia walked away from the deal, saying its demands for an easing of sanctions on its own grain and fertiliser exports had not been met.

Ukraine is able to export limited volumes through small river ports on the Danube and via its western land border with the European Union.

Ukraine is expected to harvest at least 80 million tons of grain and oilseed in 2023 and the 2023/24 exportable surplus totals about 50 million tons.

CORN/CEPEA: Crop activities advance, but sales are low in Brazil

The harvest of the second crop and sowing of the summer crop are in progress in most Brazilian regions. However, corn sales have been low, and purchasers have been using the product stocked.

As for prices, the scenarios have been the opposite between the regions surveyed by Cepea. In the areas that produce second crops and/or have high inventories, prices are fading, while in the typical consuming regions and/or in those that only produce summer crops, values are on the rise.

It is important to highlight that the current low liquidity and lower storage capacity – compared to the national output estimated for this season – are concerning sellers. However, the high performance of Brazilian corn exports is bringing some relief to this scenario.

PRICES – In Campinas (SP), a typical corn-consuming region, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index closed at BRL 54.43 per 60-kg bag on Thursday, 21, 0.8% higher than that on September 14th. Valuations at Brazilian ports, majorly at the port of Santos, underpinned prices in Campinas.

In Western Paraná, Dourados (MS) and Rio Verde (GO), all regions that produce second crops, prices dropped 1%, 2.6% and 0.5%, respectively, between September 14-21 in the wholesale market (deals between processors). On the other hand, in Rio Grande do Sul, the regions of Passo Fundo and Santa Rosa – which produce summer crops and that are facing weather issues –, values increased, by 3% and 0.2%, respectively.

On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, corn prices dropped 0.2% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 0.5% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

2023/24 SEASON – This week, Conab (Brazil’s National Company for Food Supply) has released its first estimates for the 2023/24 season, pointing to a decrease of 9% in the Brazilian corn output, to 119.84 million tons (1st + 2nd + 3rd crops). Production is expected to be lower in the three crops because of the smaller area (-4.8%) and lower productivity (-4.6%).

Demand is expected to continue high, estimated at 84.6 million tons, 6% higher than that in the 2022/23 season, mainly because of increases in the production of ethanol (+37.2%) and consumption in the livestock sector (+2.7%). On the other hand, exports are forecast to decrease 27% compared to that in 2022/23, estimated at 38 million tons.

CROPS – The harvest of the 2022/23 second crop is concentrated in four Brazilian states: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, according to data released by Conab on September 18th. According to Conab, 4.3% of the national crop still needs to be harvested.

As for the 2023/24 season, sowing is in progress in southern Brazil, and, according to Conab, 15% of the national area has been sown already, against 12.8% in the same period last year.

SOYBEAN/CEPEA: North-American supply presses down soybean values in BR

With the arrival of the soybean harvest at the market in the United States, prices dropped in the Brazilian spot market over the past days. Domestic liquidity is low, since farmers have been focused on crop activities.

Between September 14-21, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa soybean Index (Paranaguá) and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, to BRL 143.43 (USD 29.09)/bag and BRL 135.95 (USD 27.57)/bag on Thursday, 21. On the average of the regions surveyed by Cepea, soybean prices decreased 3.5% in the over-the-counter market (paid to farmers) and 2.7% in the wholesale market (deals between processors).

Sowing activities have been at a fast pace in Paraná and São Paulo States, however, in some regions, high temperatures and low soil moisture are hampering activities.

According to Deral/Seab, 35% have been sown in Toledo (PR) and 10%, in Campo Mourão (PR). In Cascavel, 13% have been sown – there is a 90% chance of rains in this region on Septmeber 28th and 29th. The anticipation of activities in Paraná aims to ensure the sowing of the second crop of corn happens within the ideal period.

Ukraine Says Russian Drones Damaged Grain Storage Near Odesa

Russia attacked Odesa with missiles and drones overnight, Ukrainian Prosecutor-General’s Office says on website.

• Port infrastructure, grain storage facilities, warehouses of a private firm and several residential houses on the outskirts of Odesa were damaged in the attack
• Odesa port passenger terminal and a hotel nearby suffered significant damage

Egypt in Talks With ADCB for Kazakh Wheat-Import Funding: Govt

Egypt also in talks with Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank about funding for wheat imports from other origins, Supply Minister Ali El-Moselhy tells reporters.

• Bank had approached Egyptian government “as a trader,” as it has a branch in Kazakhstan
• Egypt told ADCB that main issue for the country is the “bottom line price”

US Cattle on Feed Fell to 11.09M Head on Sept. 1

The feedlot herd fell 2.2% from a year ago, according to the USDA’s monthly report. Analysts were expecting a drop of 2.2%

• Placements onto feedlots down 5.1% y/y to 2.003m head
• Cattle marketed from feedlots declined 6% to 1.884m head
• The following level figures are in thousands of head:

US Beef Production Falls 0.9% This Week, Pork Rises: USDA

US federally inspected beef production falls to 515m pounds for the week ending Sept. 23 from 520m in the previous week, according to USDA estimates published on the agency’s website.

• Cattle slaughter down 1.1% from a week ago to 625m head
• Pork production up 0.3% from a week ago, hog slaughter rises 0.2%
• For the year, beef production is 5.1% below last year’s level at this time, and pork is 0.1% above

US Nitrogen Firms as India Tender Prices Revealed, Brazil to Buy

The global urea market found direction as India’s tender revealed prices above $400 a metric ton delivered. China may limit urea exports in 4Q, setting up a scramble for tons as India sources material and Brazil seeks supply. Ammonia and urea are balanced on a unit basis, with both inching higher in the US as global nitrogen markets strengthen.

NOLA Urea, Potash Climb as Inland Nitrogen Prices Strengthen

US nitrogen prices are on the rise, fueled by hikes in urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices from CF and back-to-back increases for ammonium sulfate from AdvanSix and Interoceanic. Tight supply and logistics issues due to low river levels and seasonal navigation closures pushed prompt urea up at New Orleans (NOLA), but prices fall for later shipments in 4Q. Ammonia also edged higher in the Corn Belt, though most tons for fall were booked earlier at lower levels. US phosphate prices were steady at inland warehouses and only slightly changed at NOLA, while NOLA potash was up $10 a short ton (st) from last week.

India booked fewer tons at lower prices than expected in its latest urea tender, so more tenders are likely in 4Q and at higher prices as China remains out of the export market and India competes with Brazil for tonnage.

Brazil Nitrogen Prices Falter After India Tender Disappoints

After Brazil urea jumped $100 a metric ton at mid-month following India’s latest tender call, the market dropped this week when India booked fewer tons at lower prices than expected. Potash prices also weakened amid slow demand, while phosphates slightly increased.

Brazil Urea, Potash Prices Fall; Phosphates Up on Thin Supply

Urea prices fell 3% in Brazil as traders digested India’s recent tender results. India booked only 525,000 metric tons (mt) from the 3.6 million offered, suggesting plentiful material is left for Brazil to buy for corn safrinha preparation. Prices may keep falling until demand picks up, but China’s restrictive export policy and India’s remaining needs will likely limit the drop. Belarusian potash available at discounts of about $20/mt to Canadian tons caused potash prices to fall an average of $5/mt from last week, and slow demand may pressure the market further. Phosphate prices were up on limited supply, but demand is expected to fall after the soybean 2023-24 planting season ends, potentially driving prices down by mid-October.

India Cumulative Monsoon Rainfall 6% Below Normal as of Sept. 24

India has so far received 796.4 millimeters of rains during the current monsoon season, which runs from June through September, compared with a normal of 843.2 millimeters, according to data published by the India Meteorological Department on Sept. 24.

• The eastern and northeastern region got 17% below normal rains
• Rainfall in the northwestern region was at 2% above normal

 

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