Global Ag News for Sep 16

TODAY – EXPORT SALES

Wheat prices overnight are down 1 1/2 in SRW, unchanged in HRW, down 3/4 in HRS; Corn is up 2 1/4; Soybeans up 6 1/4; Soymeal up $0.25; Soyoil down 0.39.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 22 1/4 in SRW, up 33 1/2 in HRW, up 25 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 18 1/4; Soybeans up 14 1/4; Soymeal down $0.04; Soyoil up 1.99. For the month to date wheat prices are down 11 1/2 in SRW, up 4 in HRW, up 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 1 1/2; Soybeans up 8 1/4; Soymeal down $3.50; Soyoil down 0.77.

Chinese Ag futures (JAN 22) Soybeans up 30 yuan ; Soymeal down 4; Soyoil up 124; Palm oil up 186; Corn down 18 — Malasyian Palm is up 100. Malaysian markets are closed for holiday.

Midwest corn, soybean and winter wheat forecasts: West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday. East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday-Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday. 6 to 10 day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday-Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias Forecast: Isolated showers west through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

The player sheet for Sept. 15 had funds: net buyers of 5,000 contracts of  SRW wheat, buyers of 12,000 corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, sellers of 1,500 soymeal, and  buyers of 4,000 soyoil.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 1,180 SRW Wheat contracts; 2 Oats; 17 Corn; 1 Soybeans; 365 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1,275 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of September 15 were: SRW Wheat down 671 contracts, HRW Wheat up 321, Corn up 3,194, Soybeans up 6,445, Soymeal up 6,807, Soyoil up 1,478.

TENDERS

• SOYBEAN SALES CANCELED: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed cancellations of 132,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans sold to China and another 196,000 tonnes sold to unknown destinations, all for delivery in the 2021/22 marketing year that began Sept. 1.
• CORN PURCHASE: The Korea Feed Association (KFA) purchased about 68,000 tonnes of animal feed corn in a private deal without a formal international tender being issued
• WHEAT TENDER PASSED: Jordan’s state grain buyer, the trade ministry, made no purchase in an international tender to buy 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which closed on Wednesday
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture bought 118,771 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender.

PENDING TENDERS

• SOYMEAL TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB issued an international tender to purchase up to 30,000 tonnes of soymeal
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 tonnes of milling wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: A government agency in Pakistan issued an international tender to purchase and import 500,000 tonnes of wheat
• WHEAT TENDER: Morocco’s state grains agency ONICL issued a tender to import about 363,000 tonnes of U.S.-origin soft wheat under a preferential tariff import quota
• WHEAT FLOUR TENDER: The state purchasing agency in Mauritius issued an international tender to buy 47,000 tonnes of wheat flour to be sourced from optional origins
• WHEAT TENDER: The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association has issued an international tender to purchase 49,580 tonnes of grade 1 milling wheat to be sourced from the United States

 DOE: U.S. Ethanol Stocks Fall 1.9% to 20.01M Bbl

According to the U.S. Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 20.164 mln bbl
• Plant production at 0.937m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.926m
• The following compares latest DOE figures to a Bloomberg surveyconducted before the release:

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 9.

• Corn est. range 350k – 1,200k tons, with avg of 781k
• Soybean est. range 500k – 1,400k tons, with avg of 1,103k

U.S. NOPA August Soybean Processing Falls to 158.8M Bushels

The crush compares with 165.06m bushels a year earlier, National Oilseed Processors Association data released by Thomson Reuters showed Wednesday.

• The average estimate of analysts in a Bloomberg survey was 153.4m bu
• Soybean-oil inventories at the end of last month were 1.668b lbs, compared with 1.519b a year earlier; average estimate by analysts was 1.555b
• In July, the crush was 155.11m bu with soybean-oil reserves at 1.617b lbs

Veg Oil Demand Could Shift Farmers to Soy

With US farmers out in the fields harvesting crops for this year, attention will soon be turned to planting decisions for next year. US farmers may find themselves increasingly choosing to plant soybeans over corn, says Pete Meyer of S&P Global Platts. According to Meyer, planted acres of soybeans in the US may exceed corn by 2023, as demand for soyoil in renewable fuels runs up again what is currently a limited amount of supply. “The veg oil complex is going to be under tremendous pressure to produce enough feedstock for these guys,” says Meyer, referring to energy companies jumping into the markets for renewable fuels for both automobiles and airplanes. According to USDA data, 87.2M acres of soybeans were planted this year.

Indonesia Sees Slower Growth in 2021 CPO Output on Lower Yield

Indonesia’s crude palm oil production in 2021 may only reach 48 million tons, compared with 47 million tons last year, according to Togar Sitanggang, vice chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, known as Gapki.

• The estimate is lower than his previous outlook of 49 million tons as production in 3Q is “not so good”, he says in a webinar on Thursday
• Dry season in 2019 caused the oil palm trees to produce less fresh fruit bunches

China buys Brazilian soy as hurricane damage limits U.S. exports, traders say

Chinese importers bought four to six bulk cargoes of Brazilian soybeans early this week for shipment in October and November, an unusual purchase during the peak export period for rival supplier the United States, two traders with knowledge of the deals said on Wednesday.

The deals for up to an estimated 360,000 tonnes of soybeans were inked as export terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast in Louisiana, the country’s busiest crop shipping outlet, have struggled to recover from damage, flooding and power outages caused by Hurricane Ida on Aug. 29.

The pivot to costly Brazilian soybeans underscored concerns among global importers that U.S. shipping delays could linger well into the peak season for exports from the United States.

The Brazilian soybeans were sold at lofty prices of $4.20 or more premium to Chicago Board of Trade November futures, including cost and freight, two U.S. trade sources said.

France’s Rouen Grain Exports Fell 48% in Week to Sept. 15: Port

Grain shipments from France’s Rouen port totaled 63,404 tons in the week to Sept. 15, compared with 121,584 tons a week earlier, according to an emailed report.

China Eases Quality Terms for French Wheat Imports

Chinese buyers have agreed to relax minimum test-weight requirements for French wheat cargoes to 75 kg/hectoliter, from 77 kg/hectoliter initially required, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing unidentified traders.

China Started Larger-Scale 2nd-Round Purchase of Hog Reserves

China has started second-round purchase of hog reserves, which will have a larger scale and last longer than the first round, National Development and Reform Commission official Peng Shaozong says at a press conference.

• Hog price will likely rebound gradually on reserves purchase and rising demand in autumn and winter
• NDRC advised slaughter houses and food processing businesses to replenish stocks

China’s Pig Price Crash Worsens as Farmers Get Rid of Sows

The relentless collapse in China’s pig prices is going to get worse before it gets better.

Farmers are eliminating less productive breeding sows as margins are squeezed amid a slump in pork prices and high feed costs like corn and soybeans this year. The move is worsening a glut as China’s hog population recovers from African swine fever. But the reduction in production capacity means prices could rise around the middle of next year.

The Chinese futures market is reflecting this. The paths of near-term and longer-dated contracts are diverging, with May futures rebounding to trade above January prices, which have extended losses.

Also of concern for prices is a possible retreat from state intervention in the market. The National Development & Reform Commission said late August that the country would buy more pork for state reserves. The agriculture ministry struck a different tone when it said this week that it’s “no longer appropriateto intervene” to protect prices as China’s hog industry has been liberalized.