Global Ag News for Oct 5.23

TOP HEADLINES

Germany to Send Air Defenses for Kyiv to Guard Grain Routes

• Berlin will provide IRIS-T systems, Gepard anti-aircraft guns
• Additional support due to arrive on the ground by end of year

Germany plans to supply additional air defenses for Ukraine to help protect grain shipments from potential Russian attacks, according to people familiar with the matter.

Berlin will send one extra IRIS-T air defense system and more than a dozen Gepard anti-aircraft guns that will provide cover for consignments heading toward Romania along the country’s southern coast, the people said on condition of anonymity. The weapons should arrive in Ukraine by the end of this year, and further IRIS-T units will follow once they have been built.

Kyiv has been seeking to ramp up deliveries via the Danube River and by land through so-called solidarity lanes since an agreement to allow ships to travel from Black Sea ports through the Bosphorus strait in Turkey collapsed. A small number of vessels are also navigating through strips of water off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, defying concerns of Russian attacks.

The people didn’t disclose which specific routes the defenses would be used to cover or whether other capabilities would be included.

FUTURES & WEATHER

Wheat prices overnight are up 3 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 6 in HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 9 1/2; Soymeal down $3.40; Soyoil down 0.78.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 22 in SRW, up 7 1/2 in HRW, up 7 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 8 1/2; Soybeans down 7 1/4; Soymeal down $10.00; Soyoil down 0.37.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 21 1/2 in SRW, up 7 in HRW, up 8 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 7 1/4; Soybeans down 11 1/2; Soymeal down $12.60; Soyoil down 0.62.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 28.9% in SRW, down 24.4% in HRW, down 23.6% in HRS; Corn is down 28.5%; Soybeans down 16.6%; Soymeal down 23.3%; Soyoil down 8.2%.

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were down 106 ringgit (-2.85%) at 3609.

China markets are closed for holiday.

There were no changes in registrations. Registration total: 3,005 SRW Wheat contracts; 735 Oats; 4 Corn; 220 Soybeans; 67 Soyoil; 493 Soymeal; 402 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of October 4 were: SRW Wheat up 3,776 contracts, HRW Wheat down 319, Corn down 1,932, Soybeans up 9,935, Soymeal up 1,270, Soyoil down 2,249.

Northern Plains: Cold air is moving in behind a front and will produce a few showers the next couple of days. Frost will be possible Friday and Saturday that could put an end to any immature crops. The cold will only be temporary as a ridge brings in more warmth next week. Recent showers will cause some delays to harvest this week, but dryness that follows should allow equipment back out into the fields after a short period.

Central/Southern Plains: A front continues to push through the region Wednesday with widespread showers and thunderstorms and potential for severe weather and heavy rain. Afterward, cooler temperatures will move in, and could potentially produce some frosts Friday through Sunday mornings across northern areas. The cold will be temporary as temperatures rise next week. Drier weather that follows should allow equipment to move back into the region rather quickly. Soil moisture increases for winter wheat establishment should be favorable as well. The next system may move through on the back half of next week with scattered showers.

Midwest: A front will move across the region through Friday with widespread showers. Temperatures will fall dramatically behind the front and there is potential for frost this weekend, especially across the north. Some isolated showers may continue into the weekend in the cooler air over the Great Lakes. Dryness and warmth should return next week, though may be slow to warm up over eastern areas. Any fieldwork delays due to rainfall are likely to be short again, but we’ll watch for another potential storm system late next week.

Brazil: Wet season showers continue in central Brazil, though they may be isolated at times. A front will continue over southern areas through the weekend with bouts of heavy rain again. Southern areas are dealing with too much rainfall, which has caused flooding and the need to replant early corn in some instances. Other than those issues, increased rainfall is favorable for early establishment.

Argentina: A front moved through on Tuesday, but rainfall was mostly light and more is needed. While planting conditions are good, establishment conditions are not. Dry weather that is forecast to follow for the next week is not favorable either. The next system is forecast to move through in the middle of next week, but forecasts are not favoring the widespread heavy rain that is needed just yet.

The player sheet for Oct. 4 had funds: net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW wheat, sellers of 1,000 corn, and  sellers of 3,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• CORN SALES: The U.S. Department of Agriculture confirmed private sales of 109,226 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for shipment in the 2023/24 marketing year and 87,381 tons for shipment in the 2024/25 season.
• WHEAT PURCHASE: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) bought a total of 91,234 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the United States, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that closed on Thursday.
• FEED WHEAT SALE: An importer group in Thailand is believed to have purchased about 60,000 metric tons of animal feed wheat thought likely to be sourced from the Black Sea region, European traders said.

PENDING TENDERS

• CORN, BARLEY TENDER: Algerian state agency ONAB has issued international tenders to purchase around 60,000 metric tons of animal feed corn and 30,000 metric tons of feed barley.
• WHEAT TENDER: Bangladesh’s state grains buyer issued an international tender to purchase 50,000 metric tons of milling wheat.

TODAY

DOE: US Ethanol Stocks Fall 0.7% to 21.884M Bbl

According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report.

• Analysts were expecting 21.943 mln bbl
• Plant production at 1.009m b/d, compared to survey avg of 0.999m

GRAIN EXPORT SURVEY: Corn, Soy, Wheat Sales Before USDA Report

Estimate ranges are based on a Bloomberg survey of six analysts; the USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report on Thursday for week ending Sept. 28.

• Corn est. range 1,800k – 3,250k tons, with avg of 2,308k
• Soybean est. range 400k – 950k tons, with avg of 670k

Brazil soy exports seen reaching 6.71 mln tns in October – Anec

• BRAZIL SOY EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 6.71 MILLION TNS IN OCTOBER VERSUS 3.59 MILLION TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL CORN EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 8.90 MLN TNS IN OCTOBER VS 6.17 TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO
• BRAZIL SOYMEAL EXPORTS SEEN REACHING 2.13 MLN TNS IN OCTOBER VS 1.78 MLN TNS IN SAME MONTH A YEAR AGO- ANEC

Argentina wheat productivity at risk after recent rains disappoint

Argentina’s agricultural heartland needs more rain soon to avoid wheat productivity losses and finish planting early season corn, after showers last week failed to quench parched farmlands, the Rosario grains exchange said on Wednesday.

Agricultural powerhouse Argentina is a key global exporter of wheat and the world’s third-biggest corn exporter, but a historic drought severely hit the previous 2022/23 crops.

Western agricultural areas still await rainfall to help restore soil moisture levels.

In a report, the exchange said that between 15-20 milliliters of water are needed “to maintains the crops’ potential,” but that in general less than half of the agricultural area has received this much rain.

The lack of rain could affect the Rosario’s forecast of 15 million metric tons for the 2023/24 wheat production, while it could also hit the exchange’s projection of 56 million tons for the 2023/24 corn output.

A separate weather report from the Buenos Aires grains exchange on Wednesday showed that most of the Argentine agricultural area, as well as northwestern Paraguay, will receive less than 10 milliliters of rain in the coming days.

Australian farm incomes set to fall 41% as El Nino limits rains

The Australian government on Thursday said it expects dry weather and low livestock prices to reduce average farm incomes by 41% in the 2023–24 financial year, taking them back to levels last seen three years ago.

Australia is a major producer and exporter of farm products from wheat and barley to beef and sugar, and agriculture accounts for around 2.5% of the country’s economic output.

Three years of plentiful rainfall raised crop production and the value of agricultural exports to record highs.

But the country is now in the grip of an El Nino weather event that has brought dry and hot conditions, stunting crop development, damaging pastures and pushing down cattle and sheep prices.

Average cash income per broadacre – or large-scale – farm is expected to fall to A$197,000 ($125,000) from a record-breaking A$350,000 in 2021-22 and A$332,000 in 2022-23, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) said in a report.

“Reduced prices for agricultural commodities, particularly livestock, and declines in crop production due to drier conditions are the main drivers of forecast falls,” it said.

Average incomes nationwide will still remain above their levels in recent drought years such as 2019-20, ABARES said.

But it forecast below-average profits for parts of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, where dry weather has damaged crops, and for parts of southern Victoria, Tasmania, Southern and Western Australia hit by dryness and declining sheep, lamb, and wool prices.

ABARES also said its estimates may prove too high because cattle and sheep prices have fallen further since it compiled them last month.

A little over half of Australia’s farmers expect the country’s agricultural output to grow over the next decade, with optimism in short supply among livestock farmers particularly, a survey published on Wednesday showed.

US Fall Fertilizer Season Snarled as River Levels Slow Transit

The global urea market was unsettled in advance of another tender from India, with the last one securing fewer tons and at lower prices than anticipated. Low water levels in the Mississippi River have reduced tow size and weight limit, hindering barge traffic in a blow to farmers upriver.

Nitrogen, Potash Prices Up, Phosphates Flat

Nitrogen prices continued to creep up, fueled by last week’s October Tampa ammonia settlement at $575 a metric ton (mt), $185 above September’s price. Cornbelt and Northern Plains ammonia edged up to $725 a short ton (st), above the previous $650-$675 range, while the last confirmed offers in the Southern Plains jumped to $700/st. Northeast pricing increased $10-$20/st for urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and $10/st for ammonium sulfate, with ammonium sulfate increases confirmed in eastern Canada as well. New Orleans (NOLA) urea dropped slightly from last week’s high, while NOLA phosphates were largely flat. The NOLA potash market nudged up $5/st from last week on limited supply.

 

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