Global Ag News for Oct 15

TODAY—WEEKLY ETHANOL STATS—NOPA MONTHLY CRUSH

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 4 cents, HRW up 6; HRS Wheat up 6, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 8;  Soymeal up $1.50, and Soyoil down 70 points.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 9,000 Soybeans; bought 6,000 Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 32,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 179,000 Corn; net long 245,000 Soybeans; net long 84,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 86,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,600 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,400; Corn up 2,100; Soybeans up 5,500 contracts; Soymeal up 2,000 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,000.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 109 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 361; Soybeans 1; Soyoil 1,907 lots; Soymeal 250; Rice ZER0; HRW Wheat 135, and; HRS 1,195.

Tender Activity—S. Korea bought likely 60,000t Brazilian corn—

U.S. soybean crushings likely dropped in September to the lowest monthly level in a year, while soyoil stocks fell to a 13-month low.

NOPA members, which handle about 95% of all soybeans crushed in the United States, likely crushed 160.795 million bushels of soybeans last month.

The monthly NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members at the end of September were seen dropping to 1.412 billion pounds, based on the average of estimates from seven analysts, down from 1.519 billion pounds at the end of August and the 1.442 billion pounds at the end of September 2019.

Wire story reports not long ago it seemed that the United States had semi-permanently buried itself in soybeans, the main catalyst being damaged export demand to top customer China. And more recently, it was almost certain U.S. corn inventories were quickly running away to multi-decade highs; but now, soybean supplies over the next year are seen dwindling to five-year lows, while corn stocks are slated to be on par with the last few years instead of surging more than 50% higher.

China’s corn futures hit a record high on Wednesday as investors bet on higher prices for the grain because of crop damage from typhoons this year and due to Beijing’s efforts in years past to whittle down its once-mammoth state reserves; the milestone came as China bought another 420,000 tons of U.S. corn, adding to record purchases topping more than 12 million tons this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture; the most actively traded corn futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange for delivery in January hit 2,595 yuan ($385.14) per ton, the highest on record.

Brazilian wheat millers association Abitrigo opposes the approval of genetically modified wheat products for sale in Brazil, saying it will make imports of the cereal more costly and impact prices on the domestic market; the statement comes after Argentine authorities approved a new genetically modified wheat that can resist drought and tolerates the herbicide glufosinate sodium.

European wheat prices closed slightly higher on Wednesday after hitting contract highs earlier in the session, in a sign that traders were relieved that Algeria’s latest wheat purchase would not be sourced from the Black Sea region; benchmark December milling wheat closed 0.75 euro higher at 203.50 euros ($239.1) a ton. It had touched a contract high of 204.00 euro in earlier trade.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, Contracts for Difference (CFDs) in any instrument, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value. Investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested and may incur additional liabilities. These investments may be subject to above average financial risk of loss. Investors should consider their financial circumstances, investment experience and if it is appropriate to invest. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.

ADM Investor Services International Limited, registered in England No. 2547805, is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 148474] and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 3rd Floor, The Minster Building, 21 Mincing Lane, London EC3R 7AG.                  

A subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company.

© 2024 ADM Investor Services International Limited.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.