Global Ag News For Mar 25

 TODAY—WEEKLY EXPORT SALES—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 6 cents, HRW down 2; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal down $1.00, and Soyoil down 35 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 12 yuan in soybeans, down 2 in Corn, up 38 in Soymeal, up 36 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were down 20 ringgit at 3,903 (basis June) at midsession on weaker crude, soyoil prices.

South America Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run remained mostly consistent with the midday GFS model and forecast confidence remains high for South America. Argentina’s environment will still be favorable in most areas for late season crop development and most of the nation will receive meaningful rain tonight through Saturday followed by a period of drier conditions which will favor fieldwork advancement. Net drying in much of Brazil through the end of March, excluding the far south, will still benefit fieldwork advancement but also raise concern of crop moisture stress. Some shower and thunderstorm activity will return to drier areas of Brazil in early April but with resulting moisture below normal.

U.S. Weather Forecast: Last evening’s GFS model run was similar to the midday GFS model run in showing a ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. throughout much of the second week of the outlook. The greatest temperature anomalies relating to the warmth will likely be over the Northern Plains. Last evening’s GFS model run did show a weather disturbance slip under the ridge and promote significant rain in the eastern half of the Northern Plains Apr. 6 – 8.

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 1,000 Corn; net bought 4,000 Soybeans; bought 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 2,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 350,000 Corn; net long 159,000 Soybeans; net long 56,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 100,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 3,900 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,000; Corn down 2,800; Soybeans up 380 contracts; Soymeal up 470, and; Soyoil down 3,000.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,218 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 710.

Tender Activity—Ethiopia seeks 400,000t optional-origin wheat. S. Korea seeks 130,000t optional-origin feed wheat—Philippines passed on 155,000t optional-origin milling, feed wheat—S. Korea bought 66,000t optional-origin feed wheat-

production was 922,000 barrels per day, down 5.1% versus a week ago (analysts surveyed had forecast production to rise as much as 81,000 barrels from last week’s report), down 8.3% versus a year ago.

Stocks were 21.8 mil barrels, up 2.2% versus last week (this uptick defied forecasts, who had expected inventories to fall by as much as 1.1 million barrels for the week); down 9.7% versus last year.

Corn used was 93.2 mil bu versus 98.1 mil last week and versus the 96.1 mil needed to meet USDA projections.

A Farm Futures magazine survey of U.S. planting intentions indicated that producers expect to plant 93.596 million acres of corn in 2021, up 3.1% from the 90.8 million acres seeded a year ago.

• Soybean plantings for 2021 were forecast at 88.510 million acres, up 6.5% from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 2020 estimate of 83.1 million acres.
• Total wheat plantings were seen at 45.610 million acres, up 2.8% year-on-year.
• Winter wheat seedings were estimated at 31.999 million acres, up 5.2% year-on-year and close to the USDA’s Jan. 12 estimate of 31.991 million.
• Spring wheat plantings (excluding durum) were seen at 11.419 million acres, down 6.8% from 12.250 million acres in 2020.
• Durum wheat plantings were seen at 2.192 million acres, up 30.2% year-on-year.
• Farm Futures surveyed 1,061 producers from Feb. 22 to March 5 for its latest survey.
• A previous Farm Futures survey, released on Feb. 5, had projected U.S. 2021 corn plantings at 94.7 million acres and 2021 soybean plantings at 84.5 million acres.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday it will dedicate at least $6 billion to expand financial assistance for farmers hurt by the pandemic, including small and socially disadvantaged producers.

Mexican corn production is likely to total no more than 24 million tonnes this year, significantly less than the government’s forecast, the head of one of the country’s largest corn farmer associations said. Juan Pablo Rojas told Reuters that the official estimate of nearly 27 million tonnes by the agriculture ministry’s SIAP statistical agency is unreliable due to budget cuts that have hit field personnel.

Adequate soil moisture supports record high China wheat production – Refinitiv Commodities Research

2021/22 CHINA WHEAT PRODUCTION: 138 [135–143] MILLION TONS, Down <1% FROM LAST UPDATE

• Above average soil moisture across the key winter wheat production regions
• Recent and expected warm temperatures to favor winter wheat green up

Wire story reports China is taking in record amounts of soybeans from the United States and Brazil as its hog population recovers from a deadly disease that began nearly three years ago, but import expansion into the next marketing year might be minimal. Additionally, China continues to report new outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF). Many market-watchers are growing fearful that the disease could be worse than it appears, adding uncertainty around the direction of global feed ingredient trade over the next year or so.

Brazil’s centre-south sugar exports are expected to fall by 3 million tonnes in the 2021/22 season that starts in April, to 26.5 million tonnes, as a smaller sugar cane crop will cut the sweetener’s production,

Argentina corn production slightly down on unfavorable early harvest weather – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Unfavorable late season weather conditions marginally lower Argentina soybean production – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Thursday that it had raised its forecast for Russia’s 2021 wheat crop to 79.8 million tonnes from a previously expected 78 million tonnes. The forecast was raised due to favourable weather in Russia’s southern grain producing regions.

Favorable spring weather fractionally lifts Russian wheat outlooks – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Ukraine wheat outlooks steady as spring regrowth begins in southern producing regions – Refinitiv Commodities Research

France’s grain sector needs to offer higher-quality wheat to meet Chinese industry needs and strengthen phytosanitary checks if it wants to further expand sales to China, a senior manager at COFCO International said. The volume of French wheat exports to China has surged in the past year, as France is among the few approved suppliers able to capture robust Chinese demand.

Euronext nearby wheat futures fell on Wednesday to a new five-week low as weakening export prices and favourable crop conditions weighed on the market. Front-month May milling wheat settled down 2.50 euros, or 1.1%, at 218.50 euros ($258.42) a tonne. It earlier fell to 217.50 euros, its weakest since Feb. 12 and below a previous five-week low of 218.25 euros from Monday.

EU rapeseed production lowered as updated area estimates point to significant downside – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Australian wheat farmers are the unexpected beneficiaries of the country’s most devastating floods in more than half a century, with the deluge priming their land just in time for the major planting window next month. While the recent downpour has caused widespread damage – submerging houses, sweeping away livestock and smashing roads – the impact for the wheat industry is providing something of a silver lining. After harvesting their biggest ever wheat crop last season, the flooding – or at least drenching – in large parts of the country’s main eastern wheat belt is improving soil moisture for crop planting.

Algeria plans to scrap the value added tax (VAT) for barley and maize as well as other products intended for feeding livestock and poultry, the prime minister’s office said. The measure is aimed at reining in soaring domestic prices for poultry and livestock. Poultry costs rose nearly 100% in past weeks, with the government blaming higher prices for animal feed on the international market.

Iraq is expected to produce 5 million tonnes of wheat locally this season, the deputy agriculture minister said. The wheat surplus in the April-May harvest would be stockpiled rather than exported. Iraq is a major Middle East grain importer and needs between 4.5 million and 5 million tonnes of wheat a year to supply its massive food rationing program.

Despite prolonged warm temperatures India wheat production remains at all-time highs – Refinitiv Commodities Research

Global edible oil prices are nearing their peak but may be slow to decline to previous levels due to low stocks, a slow recovery in output and higher global use in biofuel production, leading analysts said on Wednesday. Major vegetable oil prices such as palm oil and soybean oil have likely already peaked at multi-year highs in 2021, lifted by a cocktail of production hiccups, recovering food consumption and an upbeat outlook for biofuel demand, leading industry analysts said. But a constrained recovery in palm oil production due to an enduring labour shortage in Malaysia, and a slowdown in soybean oil output in China due to stalled soymeal demand growth, will prevent prices from falling too steeply.

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-25 rose 10.4% to 1,017,730 tonnes from 921,929 tonnes shipped during Feb 1-25, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia.