Global Ag News for Mar 23

TODAY—WEEKLY DELIVERABLE STOCKS—

Overnight trade has SRW Wheat down roughly 3 cents, HRW down 4; HRS Wheat down 2, Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 6; Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil up 5 points.

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 40 yuan in soybeans, unchanged in Corn, down 33 in Soymeal, up 270 in Soyoil, and up 302 in Palm Oil.

Malaysian palm oil prices were up 129 ringgit at 3,972 (basis June) at midsession supported by President Biden’s green energy push.

Argentina’s environment will still be favorable in most areas for late season crop development and the nation will receive another meaningful rain event Wednesday through Saturday.

Net drying in much of Brazil, excluding the far south and northwest Mato Grosso, will benefit fieldwork advancement but also raise concern of crop moisture stress. Shower and thunderstorm activity will return to the drier areas of Brazil in early April; however, resulting moisture will likely be below normal.

Last GFS model run for the US had a change involving a cold surge that was removed from what the midday GFS model run showed Apr. 2 – 6. Last evening’s run was much warmer in this timeframe. Above average temperatures are more likely. Last evening’s run also showed an aggressive storm system with significant rain in the Hard Red Winter Wheat Region, West Texas, and New Mexico Apr. 1 – 3.

The player sheet had funds net even in SRW Wheat; sold 10,000 Corn; net bought 1,000 Soybeans; sold 8,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 9,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 346,000 Corn; net long 151,000 Soybeans; net long 54,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 96,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 2,600 contracts; HRW Wheat down 745; Corn down 1,800; Soybeans down 1,100 contracts; Soymeal up 540 lots, and; Soyoil up 1,900.

There were no changes in registrations—Registrations total 40 contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn ZERO; Soybeans 60; Soyoil 1,218 lots; Soymeal 175; Rice 1,013; HRW Wheat 1,291, and; HRS 710. 

Tender Activity—S. Korea seeks 35,000t U.S./Canadian wheat—Philippines seek 155,000t optional-origin milling and feed wheat—Thailand seeks 430,000t optional-origin feed wheat—

Weekly USDA wheat ratings improve in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service in a weekly crop report on Monday rated 45% of the Kansas winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up from 38% a week earlier.

• For Oklahoma, the USDA rated 62% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, up from 57% a week earlier.

• • The USDA said 36% of Oklahoma’s wheat had reached the “jointing” stage of growth, ahead of the five-year average of 31%.

• For Texas, the USDA rated 29% of the crop as good to excellent, up from 27% the previous week.

• • The Texas corn crop was 38% planted, up from 26% a week ago and ahead of the state’s five-year average of 34%.

• For Colorado, the USDA rated 33% of the winter wheat as good to excellent, up from 25% the previous week.
• In Arkansas, the USDA rated 57% of the state’s wheat as good to excellent, up from 53% a week ago.
• The USDA rated 45% of the Louisiana winter wheat crop and 49% of Mississippi’s wheat as good to excellent.

• • Corn planting was 52% complete in Louisiana and 11% complete in Mississippi.

Wheat exports are running down 1% versus down 4% a week ago with the USDA forecasting a 2% increase on the year. Corn up 89% (up 87% last week); USDA up 46%. Soybeans up 73% (up 74% last week) with the USDA up 34% on the year.

Private analytics firm IHS Markit Agribusiness, formerly known as IEG Vantage, on Monday projected more U.S. plantings of corn but fewer soybean acres for 2021 than it did in January.

Richardson International plans to double its canola crushing capacity at Yorkton, Saskatchewan, to 2.2 million tonnes annually, making it Canada’s largest such plant, the company and provincial government said. Canola production has grown rapidly in Western Canada, the world’s biggest producer of the yellow-flowering crop. Prices last month hit all-time highs, as global demand soared for oilseeds to make vegetable oil and animal feed. Booming North American demand for renewable diesel, a clean-burning road fuel that refiners can produce from canola oil and other feedstocks, has added to interest in the crop.

Canadian Pacific’s $25 billion deal to buy Kansas City Southern will create a rail network from Canada to Mexico that farm groups say could smooth the flow of their goods to market. The deal, subject to approval by the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, would combine CP’s cross-Canada network, which stretches as far south as Kansas City, Missouri, with its U.S. rival’s network, which extends south into Mexico.

Pork prices in China went down last week as supply exceeded demand, official data showed Tuesday. From March 15 to 19, the average pork price index in 16 provincial-level regions tracked by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was 34.44 yuan (about 5.3 U.S. dollars) per kg, down 1.1 percent week on week. The prices dropped 27.5 percent compared with the same period last year.

Planting of Brazil’s second corn in the Center-South region reached 86.2% of the area, some 10 percentage points below the historical average for this time of year, according to an estimate on Monday by Safras & Mercado. At this time last year, planting of Brazil’s second corn crop — which will represent around 77% of the country’s output this season, had reached 90.3% of the area.

Harvesting for the summer corn crop had finished on 55% of the estimated planted area, ahead of the 52.9% finished on the same date a year ago but less than the 56.2% five-year average for the date.

Through Thursday, 59% of Brazil’s soy area had been harvested compared with 66% last season, AgRural said.

BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 133 MLN TNS VS 132.5 MLN TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – RABOBANK

Soy and sugar traders are fighting for room in Latin America’s largest port, rushing to secure loading slots as the slowest Brazilian soy harvest in 10 years pushes the grains export window into the sugar season. Congestion was hitting Brazil’s Santos port just as consumers worldwide have been turning to top exporter Brazil for sugar and soybean supplies. The glut of shipments waiting to leave is boosting transport costs and will likely delay arrivals at destinations.

Russia’s government plans to extend retail price cuts on sugar and sunflower oil and eliminate some import taxes in its battle to tame the country’s rising food inflation. Since December, Russia has imposed several grain export taxes and other measures. Producers of sugar and sunflower oil agreed to reduce prices with retail chains until the end of March.

Ukraine’s grain exports have fallen by 23.4% to 34.01 million tonnes so far this season, which runs from July 2020 to June 2021, economy ministry data showed; the exports included 14 million tonnes of wheat, 15.43 million tonnes of corn and 4.05 million tonnes of barley. Exporting 14 million tonnes of wheat, traders have used 80% of the total export quota of 17.5 million tonnes imposed for the whole 2020/21 July-June season.

Soft wheat exports from the European Union in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 19.34 million tonnes by March 21, data published by the European Commission showed; that was down from 24.65 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season

—EU 2020/21 barley exports had reached 5.51 million tonnes, against 5.66 million a year ago

—EU 2020/21 maize imports stood at 11.38 million tonnes, down from 15.62 million.

European Union soybean imports in the 2020/21 season that started last July had reached 10.52 million tonnes by March 21, data published by the European Commission showed; that compared with 10.26 million tonnes cleared by the same week last season

—EU rapeseed imports in 2020/21 had reached 4.87 million tonnes, compared with 4.82 million a year ago.

—Soymeal imports so far in 2020/21 were at 12.33 million tons against 12.97 million a year earlier

—Palm oil imports were at 3.97 million tonnes versus 4.13 million a year ago

European wheat futures in Paris fell to a new five-week low on Monday as waning end-of-season export demand and a favourable outlook for northern hemisphere harvests hung over the market.

Front-month May milling wheat was down 1.25 euros, or 0.6%, at 218.50 euros ($260.32) a tonne.

It earlier touched its lowest since Feb. 12 at 218.25 euros, just below a previous five-week low touched on Friday. New-crop September wheat was down 0.8% at 196.25 euros, after hitting a fresh five-week low of 195.75 euros.

Selected highlights from a report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service post in Cairo:

—FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (July–June) to reach 9.0 million metric tons (MMT), up by almost 1.12% compared to 8.9 MMT in marketing year 2020/21

—FAS Cairo forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in MY 2021/22 (July–June) at 13.2 MMT, up by 1.53% from MY 2020/21 Post’s import estimate figure of 13.0 MMT

—FAS Cairo forecasts Egypt’s corn imports in MY 2021/22 (Oct–Sept) at 10.3 MMT, similar to Post’s MY 2020/21 estimate

Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Mar. 1-20 fell 0.1 percent to 733,668 tonnes from 734,622 tonnes shipped during Feb. 1-20, cargo surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance said.